Ag Weather Forum

The year 2026 is, so far, a good crop weather year for the world's largest coffee-growing regions. Both primary coffee varieties, arabica and robusta, have received much more moisture in the 2025-26 production year than last year. We need to look no further than Brazil's top state for coffee production, Minas Gerais, to find a good example of this significant precipitation. From late December 2025 through the end of February 2026, Minas Gerais received from 400 to 600 millimeters (16 to 24 inches) of rain. In the same time frame a year ago, precipitation was only light and scattered.

That heavier precipitation is showing up in coffee production forecasts. Published reports note that the Brazil agriculture forecast agency Conab projects 2026 Brazil coffee production at a record 66.2 million bags, up 17.2% from a year ago. Arabica production is projected at a 23.2% increase to 44.1 million bags, and the robusta variety is forecast at 22.1 million bags, up 6.3% from last year. Brazil, of course, is far and away the leader in world coffee production; its coffee crop in 2024-25 was 37.1% -- more than one-third of the world's total crop size.

Brazil's big increase in coffee production prospects is shared by Vietnam, the world's largest producer of robusta coffee. The Vietnam 2025-26 coffee production is projected to climb 6% greater than last year. Production is estimated at 29.4 million bags, which would be the largest in four years, according to the Vietnam National Statistics Office.

All in all, world coffee production is reportedly forecast by Rabobank at 180 million bags in the 2025-26 coffee year. That estimate is 3% more than the output in 2024-25.

The large rainfall totals in Brazil's Minas Gerais state have not just been beneficial. The last week of February brought extremely heavy rain to Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states, which caused deadly flooding and mudslides. There have also been reports that the heavy rains could affect the coffee crop by causing harvest delays and crop quality losses if the coffee beans are not picked when they are ripe. However, coffee price charts indicate that quality concerns with the rain are outweighed by the volume of production highlighted in the coffee crop projections.

Weather trends are certainly not the only factors affecting the coffee market at this time. Market swings due to concern over the conflict in Iran and ocean freight shipping interruption are noteworthy. Still, the trade is keeping track of the weather patterns in Brazil and Southeast Asia. And at this point, the outlook is favorable for a new benchmark in world coffee production and Brazil, with Vietnam sporting a solid production outlook as well.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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