Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Wheat Markets

Darin Newsom
By  Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
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Source: DTN ProphetX

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.67, down 27 cents for the week. As discussed in this space last week, the SR.X was vulnerable to a Wave 5 peak and subsequent move to a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend. It looks as if this is occurring, with confirmation this coming week possible in the form of continued pressure. If the SR.X is in a secondary downtrend, initial support is at $4.59, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.80 through the $4.94 high.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2018 contract closed at $4.98 3/4, down 27 1/2 cents for the week. The previous week's high of $5.38 1/2 is looking more like the Wave 5 peak of the 5-wave uptrend, meaning a new secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend has been established.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.76 down 34 cents for the week. Cash HRW wheat looks to have established a peak to its previous 5-wave uptrend with the recent high weekly settlement of $5.10, moving into a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend. If so initial support is at $4.56, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $2.90. The 50% retracement level is down at $4.29, with the 67% retracement mark at $4.01.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2018 contract closed at $5.18, down 37 3/4 cents for the week. As discussed in this space last week, July KC wheat looks to have established the peak of its previous 5-wave uptrend with the high of $5.68 1/2. If so, next support is near $5.04 1/2, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of thee previous uptrend from $4.40 1/4. The most recent signal by weekly stochastics was a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80% the week of March 5.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.93, down 18 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend for cash spring wheat remains sideways. Though it moved outside its previous range from $5.82 to $6.05, the SW.X remains within the wider range between $6.19 (close the week of November 6, 2017) and $5.62 (week of March 26). A breakout in either direction would establish the next trend.

HRS Wheat (New-Crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2018 contract closed at $6.11 3/4, down 17 1/4 cents for the week. The contract looks to be in a wide ranging sideways pattern between the recent low of $5.88 1/4 and the recent high of $6.47.

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