Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Wheat Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.64, up 31 cents for the week. Cash SRW wheat's weekly close-only chart is not as clear this week after cash SRW posted a new close. With most secondary (intermediate-term) technical signals still bearish, the SR.X will be given another week to confirm a potential bullish turn.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2018 contract closed at $4.98 1/2, up 21 1/4 cents for the week. The contract posted a bullish outside range last week, indicating it could start to build bullish momentum. If so it would be expected to challenge its previous high of $5.31 3/4, if not extend its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend to resistance between $5.43 1/2 to $5.52 1/2.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.76, up 32 cents for the week. Cash HRW remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend on its weekly close-only chart. Initial support is at the previous low weekly close of $4.26 (week of March 26), then $4.17 and $4.00. The latter prices mark the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels respectively of the previous uptrend from $2.90 through the $4.86 high. However, a move beyond the previous high would nullify existing bearish technical signals.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2018 contract closed at $5.30 1/2, up 28 1/2 cents for the week. July KC wheat continues to consolidate within a range of converging trendlines. Resistance this coming week is calculated at $5.39 1/4 with trendline support at $4.87 1/4.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.96, up 6 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend for cash spring wheat could still be considered sideways. Though it has moved outside its previous range from $5.82 to $6.05, it remains within the wider range between $6.19 (close the week of November 6, 2017) and $5.62 (week of March 26). A breakout in either direction would establish the next trend.

HRS Wheat (New-Crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2018 contract closed at $6.14 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents for the week. The contract looks to be in a wide ranging sideways pattern between the recent low of $5.88 1/4 and the recent high of $6.47.

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