Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Wheat Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.17 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents for the week. Cash SRW wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on its weekly close-only chart. The SR.X is testing resistance at $4.18 1/4, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $5.02 1/4 through the low of $3.44. The 50% retracement level is up near $4.29 3/4. Weekly stochastics remain bullish but nearing the overbought level of 80%.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2018 contract closed at $4.73 1/2, up 7 cents for the week. While July Chicago wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, the minor (short-term) trend on its daily chart turned down last week. This could lead to a test of minor support at $4.60 3/4, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous short-term uptrend from $4.37 through last week's high of $4.84 1/2. This high was part of a minor bearish reversal that occurred on Wednesday, January 31.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.12 1/2, up 19 cents for the week. Cash HRW wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on its weekly close-only chart. The HW.X tested resistance near $4.22 1/4, a price that marks the 61.8% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $4.73 3/4 through the low of $3.39 1/4. However, weekly stochastics are above the overbought level of 80% indicating the uptrend could be nearing its end. Also, the HW.X moved into a minor (short-term) downtrend on its daily chart last Friday with stochastics establishing a bearish crossover above 90%.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2018 contract closed at $4.94 1/4, up 19 3/4 cents for the week. July Kansas City wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend with next resistance pegged at $5.10. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.23 through the low of $4.40 1/4. However, the contract's minor (short-term) trend turned down last Friday with the lower close on its daily chart establishing a bearish crossover by stochastics. The short-term downside target is near $4.70 3/4, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous minor uptrend from $4.40 1/4 through last week's high of $5.01.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.89 1/4, down 8 cents for the week. The SW.X is in a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend. Initial resistance is at the recent high weekly close of $6.05 1/4 (week of January 2) with support the previous low weekly close of $5.82 1/4 (week of December 4).

HRS Wheat (New-Crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2018 contract closed at $6.25, down 1 1/2 cents for the week. Despite posting a new 4-week high of $6.33 3/4, new-crop Minneapolis spring wheat still looks to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend on its weekly chart. However, renewed buying interest this coming week could confirm last week's bullish spike.

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