Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Wheat Markets

Darin Newsom
By  Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
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Source: DTN ProphetX

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.94 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents for the week. Cash SRW wheat still looks to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, though needing a weekly close above the previous high of $3.96 1/2 (week of November 27). Beyond that resistance is pegged at $4.04, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $5.02 1/4 through the low of $3.44.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2018 contract closed at $4.53 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents for the week. July Chicago wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Initial resistance is at $4.77 3/4, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.09 1/2 through the contract low of $4.37. Beyond that the 33% retracement level is up at $4.94.

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HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.76 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents for the week. Cash HRW wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on its weekly close-only chart. Next resistance is at $3.90 3/4, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $4.73 3/4 through the low of $3.39 1/4.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2018 contract closed at $4.58 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents for the week. July Kansas City wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend with initial resistance near $4.83 1/2. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.23 through the recent contract low of $4.40 1/4. Beyond that resistance is pegged between $5.00 1/2 and $5.10, prices that mark the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels. Weekly stochastics are bullish below the oversold level of 20%.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.91 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents for the week. The SW.X remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, holding above support at $5.82 1/2. This price marks the 76.4% retracement level of the rally from the low weekly close of $5.71 1/4 (week of September 11) through the high weekly close of $6.19 (week of November 6).

HRS Wheat (New-Crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2018 contract closed at $6.23 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents for the week. A long-range view of new-crop Minneapolis spring wheat shows the contract to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend. Wave C (third wave) is projected to reach a low near $5.98.

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