Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Darin Newsom
By  Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
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Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.13 lower at $63.73. The market continues to consolidate below its high of $64.65, in position to begin a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. With weekly stochastics well above the overbought level of 80%, confirmation of a secondary downtrend would be a move to a new 4-week low below $61.08. When this happens the initial downside target becomes $55.79, the 23.6% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $27.10.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.59 lower at $58.36. Similar to Brent crude, WTI looks to be in position to establish a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend with a move to a new 4-week low below $54.81. Resistance is at the recently posted new high of $59.05.

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Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 1.16cts lower at $1.9413. The spot-month contract posted a bearish reversal last week, meaning an outside range (with a new high of $1.9620) before closing lower. This would indicate the market's secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned down. Weekly stochastics also established a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%, confirming a likely switch in market momentum from bullish to bearish.

Gasoline: RBOB gasoline futures market closed 4.64cts lower at $1.7416. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to be sideways with resistance at the 4-week high of $1.8402. Support at the 4-week low is now $1.7121.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 2.1cts lower at $1.350. Despite weekly stochastics showing the market to be in a sharply oversold situation the spot-month contract posted a new low of $1.35 last week.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 24.8cts higher at $3.061. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend still looks to be sideways with a range between resistance at $3.258 and support at $2.803.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 3.25cts lower at $0.9375. Once again the market looks to be in position to establish a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. After consolidating near its recent high of $0.9800 the last three weeks, bearish momentum seems to be building.

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