Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Darin Newsom
By  Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
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Source; DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.92 lower at $56.62. After its recent test of resistance at $59.59 the spot-month contract came under renewed pressure last week. The lower close led to a bearish crossover by weekly stochastics above the overbought level of 80%. This would indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned down. Initial support is at $51.85, the 23.6% retracement level of the uptrend from $27.10 through the recent high of $59.49.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $2.38 lower at $49.29. The market looks to be returning to its previous secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. A break of the recent low of $45.58 would suggest an extended sell-off to $40.65, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $26.05 through the high of $55.24.

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Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 6.78cts lower at $1.7439. The lower weekly close established a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%, indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned down. Initial support is pegged at $1.6248, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $0.8487 through the high of $1.8646.

Gasoline: RBOB gasoline futures market closed 4.77cts lower at $1.5588. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend still looks to be sideways on the market's weekly close-only chart. Resistance is at $1.7479 (close the week of August 28) with support at $1.4341 (close the week of June 19).

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 8.6cts lower at $1.420. The market's secondary (intermediate-term) trend turned down as the nearby contract moved support at the double-bottom low near $1.43. Resistance is at $1.632. Weekly stochastics are neutral. Major (long-term) support on the market's monthly chart is at $1.292.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 14.4cts lower at $2.863. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend still looks to be sideways as the spot-month contract holds below resistance at $3.084. Initial support is at $2.753, the low the week of July 31.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 3.75cts higher at $0.8875. Despite the higher weekly close, cash propane still looks to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. Resistance is at the recent high of $0.9197 with initial support at $0.8275. The latter marks the 23.6% retracement level of the uptrend from $0.5288 through the $0.9197 high.

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