Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Wheat Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.99 1/4, up 15 1/4 cents for the week. At the least, the SR.X looks to have established a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend on its weekly close only chart. If so, support remains near $3.66 3/4 with resistance at the previous high weekly close of $4.12 1/4. National average basis (SR.X minus the close of July Chicago futures strengthened 5 1/4 cents last week.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2017 contract closed at $4.42 1/4, up 10 cents for the week. While the contract closed higher last week it closed well off its new 4-week high of $4.61 1/2. Its minor (short-term) trend remains up, with the sell-off late in the week testing support at $4.83 3/4. Next support is between $4.31 and $4.26 3/4.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.63 3/4 up 22 cents for the week. The cash HRW market continues to show conflicting signals with last week's close easily a new 4-week high. Still, the most recent secondary (intermediate-term) crossover by weekly stochastics was bearish the week of February 27. Resistance is at the high weekly close of $3.75 from the same week.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2017 contract closed at $4.50, up 12 3/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up following the recent 2-week reversal on its weekly chart. July KC posted a new 4-week high of $4.74 3/4 before falling back late last week. While continued selling could be seen short-term, the next upside target is $4.90 1/2. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $5.70 through the recent low of $4.11 1/4.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.11 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents for the week. The market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, testing resistance between $5.07 and $5.14 1/4. These prices mark the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $5.36 3/4 through the low of $4.77 1/2.

HRS Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2017 contract closed at $5.61 1/4 up 1/4 cent for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up based on the contract posting a bullish reversal the week of April 10 and a new 4-week high of $5.75 last week. However, the sell-off seen late in the week could lead to continued short-term pressure.

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