Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Wheat Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.92 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remain down with support at $3.89 1/2 then $3.78 1/4. These prices mark the 33% and 50% retracement levels of the previous uptrend from $3.44 and the recent high weekly close of $4.12 1/4.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2017 contract closed at $4.51 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents for the week. The contract's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways-to-up as its minor (short-term) trend switches from down to up. Last week saw July Chicago complete a classic 3-wave downtrend as it rallied off a test of support near $4.43 (last week's low was $4.43 1/2).

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.61, down 1 cent for the week. Cash HRW looks to be building a head-and-shoulder top on its weekly close chart. This would indicate that the HW.X could bounce back to a weekly close near $3.70 over the next few weeks before selling off again. Weekly stochastics remain bearish above the overbought level of 80%.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2017 contract closed at $4.65 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents for the week. While the contract's secondary (intermediate-term) trend still looks to be down, its minor (short-term) trend may try to follow the upward path established by the Chicago July contract. However, the minor technical signal is not as clear on the daily Kansas City (HRW) chart.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.07 1/2, 11 3/4 cents for the week. Despite the recent rally the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with next support at $4.86. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $4.35 through the high of $5.36 3/4.

HRS Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2017 contract closed at $5.60 1/4 up 8 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down as the contract posted a new 4-week low of $5.43 3/4. This was a test of support at $5.49, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $5.20 through the recent high of $5.78. The 67% retracement level is down at $5.39 1/4.

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