Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.29 higher at $56.81. The market looks to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend between its recent high of $58.37 and low of $53.58. Weekly stochastics remain above the overbought level of 80%. However, it is possible the market could push higher based on its ongoing major (long-term) uptrend with the next major target between $60.83 and $65.80. A bullish breakout of the secondary sideways range pegs the target at $63.16 (breakout point of $58.37 + previous range of $4.79).

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.66 higher at $53.83. Similar to Brent, WTI is in a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend between the recent high of $55.24 and $50.71 (range of $4.53). Despite weekly and monthly stochastics in overbought territory above 80%, a bullish breakout would put the upside target at $59.77. However, major resistance at $55.61 makes a bullish breakout less likely.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 4.62cts higher at $1.6651. Despite the higher weekly close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. Initial support is at $1.5485, then $1.4148. These prices mark the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous secondary uptrend from $0.8487 through the high of $1.7647.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 2.66cts higher at $1.5537. Despite the higher weekly close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. Initial support is at $1.5179, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $0.8975 through the high of $1.7095. Next support is at the 38.2% retracement level of $1.3993.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 5.1cts higher at $1.527. Ethanol remains an interesting market as the spot-month contract followed up the previous week's spike reversal with a solid rally. However, weekly stochastics did not establish a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%, leaving the door open for renewed selling once the minor (short-term) uptrend runs its course. Minor resistance is pegged between $1.553 and $1.632.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 32.8cts lower at $3.063. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. The spot-month contract posted a new 4-week low of $3.042 before closing below initial support at $3.084, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of thee previous uptrend from $1.611 through the high of $3.994. The 50% retracement level is down at $2.803.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 2.25cts higher at $0.8275. Despite the higher weekly close the secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend of cash propane looks to have ended. Last week's action formed a shooting star pattern on the weekly chart, resulting in a bearish crossover by weekly stochastics above the overbought level of 80%. Both would indicate the secondary trend is now down. Also, the major (long-term) uptrend looks to be nearing its end after testing resistance at $0.8675. Monthly stochastics are n position for a bearish crossover above 80% as well.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

Comments

To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .