Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.03 higher at $55.52. Despite the slightly higher weekly close, weekly stochastics remain bearish indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down. Initial support is at the 4-week low of $53.38. Below that support is pegged at $50.99 and $46.42, prices that mark the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous secondary uptrend.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.75 higher at $53.17. Despite the higher close the market's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. Weekly stochastics are bearish and still above the overbought level of 80%. Initial support is at the 4-week low of $50.71. Beyond that support is pegged at $48.35 and $44.09, prices that mark the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous secondary uptrend.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 2.70cts lower at $1.6189. The spot-month contract posted another new 4-week low of $1.5981 last week, indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. Initial support is at $1.5485, then $1.4148. These prices mark the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous secondary uptrend from $0.8487 through the high of $1.7647.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 3.89cts lower at $1.5271. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with the spot-month contract testing support at $1.5179. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $0.8975 through the high of $1.7095. Next support is at the 38.2% retracement level of $1.3993.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 1.4cts higher at $1.476. Not only was last week's low of $1.425 a test of support at $1.401, the 76.4% retracement level of the previous uptrend, it may also have sparked a spike reversal. If so it could signal the secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend is about to come to an end. Weekly stochastics are below the oversold 20% level, nearing a bullish crossover.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 15.4cts higher at $3.358. Despite the higher weekly close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. The spot-month contract rallied off support at $3.084 to test resistance between $3.440 and $3.546. Weekly stochastics remain bearish indicating the next move should be down, possibly to test support at $2.803.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 7.37cts higher at $0.8050. The market extended its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend to a new high of $0.8300. The major (long-term) uptrend continues to push the market higher, with next resistance on the monthly chart at $0.8675, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $1.4825 through the low of $0.2525.

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