Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.15 1/4, up 8 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend could still be considered up with initial resistance at the 4-week high (weekly close) of $3.17 1/2, then near $3.23 1/2. The latter price marks the 33% retracement level of the market's previous secondary downtrend from $4.00 1/2 through the low of $2.85 1/4. The last secondary signal by weekly stochastics was a bullish crossover in conjunction with the previous low. This gives the market the opportunity to test resistance levels before establishing a new secondary downtrend.

Corn (Old-crop Futures): The March contract closed 6.25cts higher at $3.52. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with resistance near $3.67 3/4 and initial support at $3.47, then $3.39 3/4. The resistance price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $4.53 1/4 through the low of $3.25. Weekly stochastics are neutral below the overbought level of 80%, with the last secondary signal a bullish crossover the week of September 6.

Corn (New-crop Futures): The December 2017 contract closed 3.75cts higher at $3.80. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with initial resistance now at the 4-week high of $3.93. Initial support is near $3.77, then $3.70 3/4. Weekly stochastics are neutral below the overbought level of 80%.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.31 1/4, up 9 1/2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to be sideways-to-up, with the upside target price still near $9.71 1/2 (weekly close only). Weekly stochastics remain neutral below the overbought level of 80%, with the last secondary signal a bullish crossover the week of October 10.

Soybeans (Old-crop Futures): The March contract closed at $10.04, up 6 1/2 cents for the week. Though the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, the contract's minor (short-term) trend is down. This could lead to a test of secondary support between $9.92 3/4 and $9.81, prices that mark the 67% and 76.4% retracement levels of the previous rally from $9.38 through the high of $10.74. Weekly stochastics are neutral below the overbought level of 80% with the last secondary signal a bullish crossover the week of October 3.

Soybeans (New-crop Futures): The November 2017 contract closed at $9.89 1/4, up 8 cents for the week. Despite the higher close the contract remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-Wave downtrend. Initial support is at $9.81, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $8.57 through the high of $10.43. The 50% retracement level is down at $9.50. Weekly stochastics remain bearish following a crossover above the overbought level of 80% the week of December 12.

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.65, up 19 1/4 cents for the week. The cash SRW wheat market is trending sideways between its low weekly close of $3.44 (week of October 3) and its recent high weekly close of $3.73 1/4 (Week of October 10). A breakout will likely determine the next secondary (intermediate-term) trend.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2017 contract closed at $4.34 1/4, up 13 1/2 cents for the week. Last week saw the contract post an inside trading range, holding above the previous week's new contract low of $4.20. Initial resistance is at the 4-week high of $4.43.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.19 1/2, up 19 1/2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to be up with next resistance pegged at $3.29 1/2, the high weekly close from the week of August 15. Stochastics are bullish below the overbought level of 80%, indicating the market could see continued support.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2017 contract closed at $4.41 1/4, up 12 1/4 cents for the week. The contract is consolidating between its recent low of $4.23 1/4 and previous high of $4.67 1/2.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.02 3/4, up 15 1/4 cents for the week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend still looks to be down, the SW.X posted a solid rally last week. Follow-through buying could result in a test of its recent high weekly close of $5.05. Weekly stochastics remain well above the overbought level of 80% following the bearish crossover from the week of December 19.

HRS Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2017 contract closed at $5.44, up 5 3/4 cents for the week. Though the contract continues to consolidate, it looks poised to rejoin its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Confirmation of this would be a move to a new 4-week high beyond $5.51.

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