Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.06 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents for the week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up the minor (short-term) trend is down. The NCI.X has held initial minor support at $3.04 3/4 as daily stochastics approach the oversold level of 20%. If this support fails, the next line is drawn at $3.00 3/4 then $2.98 3/4.

Corn (Futures): The December contract closed 6.25cts lower at $3.48 3/4. While the market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, its minor (short-term) trend is down. Daily stochastics are bearish, making their way toward the overbought level of 20%, while Dec corn holds above minor support at $3.44 1/2. Next support is $3.37, then $3.29 1/2.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.12, down 16 cents for the week. While technical indicators continue to show the NSI.X in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, the eyeball test shows cash soybeans to be trending sideways between resistance near $9.42 3/4 and support near $8.79 3/4 on the market's weekly close chart. This sideways pattern is confirmed by the daily chart showing the NSI.X staying within one standard deviation of its 20-day moving average (Bollinger bands).

Soybeans (Futures): The January contract closed at $9.90 3/4,down21 1/4 cents for the week. Despite the lower weekly close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. However, the minor (short-term) trend is down with support near $9.85 1/2. Daily stochastics remain bearish, and still well above the oversold level of 20%, meaning the market has more romm to move lower. Next support is pegged at $9.70 1/2, the 67% retracement level of the previous minor uptrend from $9.40 1/4 through the high of $10.31.

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.70 1/2, up 9 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with initial resistance at the recent high of $3.73 1/4 (weekly close only). Weekly stochastics remain bullish meaning the SR.X should see a bullish breakout in the coming weeks.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.06, up 1 cent for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with initial resistance at the recent high of $3.11 3/4 (weekly close only). Weekly stochastics remain bullish meaning the HW.X should see a bullish breakout in the coming weeks.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.62 1/4, down 11 cents for the week. The minor (short-term) downtrend strengthened last week, pulling the SW.X below support at $4.63 1/2. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous minor uptrend from $4.30 through the high of $4.80 1/4. However, daily stochastics are well below the oversold level of 20% indicating the market could establish a minor uptrend in the near future.

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Comments

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DARIN NEWSOM
11/13/2016 | 9:54 AM CST
Thank you John. Working on this week's analysis as we speak.
John Michael Pillow
11/13/2016 | 9:07 AM CST
Keep up the good work, Darin. Always enjoy reading your analysis, articles, and commentary.
DARIN NEWSOM
11/7/2016 | 6:46 AM CST
John, thank you for catching that. Upon further review I had missed updating soybean futures analysis completed. Jumped from cash soybeans straight to cash wheat. Again, I appreciate you pointing it out and that segment now looks to be updated.
John Michael Pillow
11/6/2016 | 8:49 AM CST
Uh.... check your Jan 17 soybean futures number.