Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Livestock Markets

By Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
Source: DTN ProphetX

Live Cattle: The April contract closed $0.025 higher at $139.825. The secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend looks to be nearing an end with weekly stochastics above the overbought level of 80%. Thee futures contract is between resistance at $139.025 and $142.80, prices that mark the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $155.00 through the low of $123.05.

Feeder Cattle: The more active May contract closed $1.40 lower at $160.70. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with a high last week of $165.875, the futures contract uncovered increased selling as it tested initial resistance near $165.90. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $212.45 through the low of $142.65. If the contract continues to move lower, initial support is at the 4-week low of $152.325.

Lean hogs: The April contract closed $0.375 lower at $71.45 last week. The lower weekly close sets the stage for a move to a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. Weekly stochastics are nearing a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%. If the trend does turn down, initial support is pegged near $68.325, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $59.225 through the recent high of $72.875.

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.40 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with support near $3.29 and initial resistance near $3.49 1/2. Weekly stochastics are neutral above the oversold level of 20%. National average basis strengthened by a 1/4 cent last week with Friday's NCI.X coming in about 26 3/4 cents below the close of the May futures contract. The 5-year average for national average basis last week is 21 cents under with the 10-year average calculated at 23 cents under.

Soybean meal: The May contract closed $6.90 lower at $266.60. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, the minor (short-term) trend turned down on Monday, March 14. This led to an immediate test of support at $266.60, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous minor uptrend from $258.90 through the recent high of $274.40. The 67% retracement level is down at $264.10. However, if the contract is able to rally early this week resistance is between $268.20 and $271.30.

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