Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

By Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.31, down 10 3/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways with next support near $3.29. Weekly stochastics are neutral-to-bearish above the oversold level of 20%. National average basis weakened by 3/4 cent last week with Friday's NCI.X coming in 28 1/2 below the close of the May futures contract.

Corn (Old-crop futures): The more active May contract closed 9.75cts lower at $3.59 1/2. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned sideways with support at the contract low of $3.54 1/4. Weekly stochastics are neutral-to-bearish above the oversold level of 20%. Major (long-term) support remains near $3.50 1/4, then down at the October 2014 low of $3.18 1/4.

Corn (New-crop futures): The December 2016 contract closed at $3.78 1/4, down 8 1/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways with support at the contract low of $3.75 1/2. Weekly stochastics are neutral-to-bearish above the oversold level of 20%.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $8.08, down 22 1/2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways between resistance near $8.48 and support at the major (long-term) low of $8.08 1/2. Weekly stochastics are neutral-to-bearish above the oversold level of 20%. National average basis weakened by 7 3/4 cents last week, coming in 55 1/2 cents under the close of the May futures contract.

Soybeans (Old-crop futures): The more active May contract closed 17.25cts lower at $8.63 1/2. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways with support at the contract low of $8.53 1/2. Weekly stochastics have turned neutral-to-bearish above the oversold level of 20%. However, minor (short-term) support on the daily chart is calculated near last Friday's settlement of $8.63 1/2.

Soybeans (New-crop futures): The November 2016 contract closed 12.50cts lower at $8.76. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways with Nov beans testing support at $8.75 1/2. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the rally from the contract low of $8.50 through the high of $9.24 1/4. With weekly stochastics neutral-to-bearish above the oversold level of 20% a test of the contract low is possible.

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN SRW Wheat National Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.03 3/4, down 16 1/4 cents for the week. Cash SRW extended its secondary (intermediate-term) and major (long-term) downtrends with move to a new low of $5.10 3/4 last week. Weekly stochastics are well below 20% indicating the market is sharply oversold.

SRW Wheat (New-crop futures): The July 2016 Chicago contract closed 14 1/2 cents lower at $4.59 1/2. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend turned down again as the contract posted a new low of $4.55. Major (long-term) support is at the June 2010 low of $4.25 1/2. Weekly stochastics remain below the oversold level of 20%.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRW Wheat National Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.86 1/2, down 14 cents for the week. The cash market easily erased the previous week's gains, establishing a new low of $3.85 3/4. Weekly stochastics remain well below the oversold level of 20%.

HRW Wheat (New-crop futures): The July 2016 Kansas City contract closed 12.00cts lower at $4.64 1/2 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend could be viewed as sideways with resistance and support at last week's extremes of $4.80 and new contract low of $4.59. Weekly stochastics remain below the oversold level of 20% indicating the market is oversold.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat National Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.55, down 10 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with next support at the major (long-term) low of $4.44. Weekly stochastics have not yet established a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%.

HRS Wheat (New-crop futures): The September 2016 Minneapolis contract closed 6 3/4 cents lower at $5.08 3/4. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways with support at the contract low of $5.05 and resistance last week's high of $5.17 1/4. Weekly stochastics remain below the oversold level of 20%.

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