Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

By Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $2.56 higher at $34.74. The recently established secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend strengthened last week, building on the previous week's bullish spike reversal. The minor (short-term) trend is also up with resistance between $37.14 and $41.26, the 23.6% and 33% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $69.63 through the low of $27.10.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.43 higher at $33.62. The recently established secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend strengthened last week, building on the previous week's bullish spike reversal. The minor (short-term) trend is also up with resistance between $34.78 and $38.31, the 23.6% and 33% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $62.58 through the low of $26.19.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 5.94cts higher at $1.0551. Both the minor (short-term) and secondary (intermediate-term) trends are up, the latter following the previous week's spike reversal and bullish crossover by weekly stochastics. Initial minor resistance is at $1.1339, the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $2.0572 through the low of $0.8487.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 1.93cts higher at $1.1031. The market looks to have concluded its three-wave secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend, posting a bullish reversal with last week's outside range and higher weekly close. Weekly stochastics also established another bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%, confirming the market is set to begin its seasonal uptrend that lasts through late April.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 3.33cts higher at $1.426. The spot-month contract posted a new 4-week high of $1.437 last week, technically establishing a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. However, weekly stochastics did not crossover below the oversold level of 20%. The minor (short-term) uptrend has taken daily stochastics well above the overbought level of 80%. Next minor resistance is $1.458, the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $1.619 through the low of $1.296.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 15.9cts higher at $2.298. The secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend continues to strengthen. Initial resistance is at the 4-week high of $2.495, then $2.819. The latter marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.493 through the low of $1.684.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 1.63cts higher at $0.3238. The market extended its recently established secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, testing initial resistance at $0.3249. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous sell-off from $0.4700 through the low of $0.2525. However, weekly stochastics remain bullish meaning the market could test the 50% retracement level of $0.3612 or the 67% retracement level up at $0.3976.

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