Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

By Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.40 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways, with support between $3.29 and $3.23. Resistance is at the high near $3.56 3/5 (week of November 30). Weekly stochastics remain neutral near the oversold level of 20%. National average basis firmed by about 1/2 cent last week with the NCI.X 23 cents under the close of the March futures contract.

Corn (Old-crop futures): The March contract closed 6.25cts higher at $3.63 1/4. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways with support at the recent low of $3.48 1/2 (week of January 4) and resistance at $3.82 (high the week of December 7). This puts the midpoint of the range at $3.65 1/4, near last week's close. The minor (short-term) trend remains up.

Corn (New-crop futures): The December 2016 contract closed at $3.85 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways with support at the recently established contract low of $3.74 1/2 (week of January 4) and resistance the high of $4.03 1/2 (week of November 30). The minor (short-term) trend remains up with an initial target near $3.91 1/2. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $8.34 1/2, up 13 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with support at the major (long-term) double-bottom low near $8.09. Initial resistance is at the 4-week high of $8.45. Weekly stochastics turned bullish last week with the most recent secondary signal a crossover below the oversold level of 20% the week of November 23. National average basis weakened 3/4 cent last week with the NSI.X 44 1/2 cents under the March futures contract.

Soybeans (Old-crop futures): The March contract closed 13.75cts higher at $8.79. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways between the recent high of $9.11 1/2 and contract low of $8.47. Weekly stochastic are neutral above the oversold level of 20%.

Soybeans (New-crop futures): The November 2016 contract closed 6.75cts higher at $8.85 1/4. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways between the recent high of $9.26 1/2 and contract low of $8.50. Next support is pegged near $8.75 1/2. Weekly stochastic remain neutral-to-bearish.

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN SRW Wheat National Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.32 1/2, down 4 cents for the week. Technically the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up despite last week's lower close and continued neutral-to-bearish weekly stochastics. The previous week saw the SR.X establish a bullish reversal on its weekly chart. National average basis firmed by about 3/4 cent last week with Friday's SR.X calculated 41 1/4 cents under the close of the March Chicago futures contract.

SRW Wheat (New-crop futures): The July 2016 Chicago contract closed 5.75cts lower at $4.84 1/2. Despite the lower close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Weekly stochastics are bullish near the oversold level of 20%. Initial resistance is at the recent high of $5.10 1/4.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRW Wheat National Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.15 1/4, up 2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up with initial resistance at the 4-week high, last week's high, of $4.21 3/4. Weekly stochastics remain bullish above the oversold level of 20%. National average basis firmed by 3/4 cent last week with Friday's HW.X calculated at 58 3/4 cents under the close of the March Kansas City futures contract.

HRW Wheat (New-crop futures): The July 2016 Kansas City contract closed 1.25cts higher at $4.93 1/2. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend turned remains with resistance is at the recent high of $5.16 1/4. Weekly stochastics are bullish near the oversold level of 20%.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat National Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.76, down 4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with the recent 3-week rally a consolidation pattern. A move below last week's low of $4.71 would signal the downtrend has resumed with the target price being the major (long-term) low of $4.44. National average basis weakened by 3/4 cent last week with Friday's SW.X calculated at 21 1/2 cents under the close of the March futures contract.

HRS Wheat (New-crop futures): The September 2016 Minneapolis contract closed 7.0cts lower at $5.20 3/4. Technically the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, with the previous week's spike reversal in the futures and bullish crossover by weekly stochastics still in effect. Support is at the contract low of $5.15 1/4.

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