Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $2.14 lower at $47.42. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with initial support at the 4-week low of $46.41. Beyond that is the major (long-term) low of $42.23. Resistance remains at $52.70, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement of the downtrend from $69.63 (week of May 4) through the major (long-term) low of $42.23 (week of August 24). Weekly stochastics are bullish, but looking to turn neutral.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $2.30 lower at $44.29. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend turned sideways again, as indicated by bearish crossover by weekly stochastics above the oversold level of 20%. Resistance remains between $47.24 and $50.16, prices that mark the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $62.58 through the low of $37.50. Support is at $42.14, the 67% retracement level of the rally from the $37.50 low through the recent high of $50.92.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 0.98ct lower at $1.4896. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways, despite weekly stochastics remaining bullish. The market continues to see a series of lower highs and higher lows, putting trendline resistance this week at $1.5893 and trendline support at $1.4153. Beyond that is major support at $1.3745 and resistance at $1.8203.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 3.55cts lower at $1.3695. The weekly chart is giving conflicting signals after the spot-month contract took out initial resistance at $1.4488 before closing lower for the week. Still, when adding in the bullish crossover by weekly stochastics below the oversold level of 20% the secondary (intermediate-term) trend would now seem to be up. Confirming that would be Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report that showed noncommercial interests adding 2,698 contracts to their net-long futures position.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 8.2cts lower at $1.520. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways-to-up, with resistance at $1.664 continuing to hold. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $2.265 through the low of $1.292. Support remains at $1.431, the 67% retracement level of the rally from the $1.292 low through the high of $1.709.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 5.0cts higher at $2.371. The market continues to indicate a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend with the spot-month contract moving above the previous week's high and weekly stochastics building on the recent bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%. Initial resistance is at the 4-week high of $2.578.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 1.00ct lower at $0.4088. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to be sideways, with resistance at the recent high of $0.4700 and support between $0.4026 and $0.3688. The latter two prices mark the 33% and 50% retracement levels of the previous rally from $0.2675 through the $0.47000 high. Weekly stochastics are neutral to bearish, with the recent bearish crossover occurring below the overbought level of 80%.

The weekly Commitments of Traders report showed positions held as of Tuesday, November 3.

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