Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.67 lower at $47.47. While technical indicators continue to show the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, the spot-month contract has had difficulty building bullish momentum. Resistance is at the 4-week high of $54.32 with support at the recent low of $42.23.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.05 higher at $44.68. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up while the minor (short-term) trend is sideways. Minor support is near $43.54, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous rally from $37.75 through the high of $49.33. Support continues to come from solid commercial buying indicated by the weakening contango (carry) in the futures spreads.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 5.93cts lower at $1.4907. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned sideways. Resistance is at the 4-week high of $1.6865 while support is at the 4-week low of $1.3745.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 1.37cts lower at $1.3562. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with major (long-term) support at the low of $1.2265. However, weekly stochastics show the market to be sharply oversold setting the stage for renewed buying interest. Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests adding 2,622 contracts to their net-long futures position.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 4.80cts higher at $1.5370. The secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend strengthened last week with the spot-month contract establishing a new 4-week high of $1.5440. Resistance is between $1.616 and $1.664, prices that mark the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $2.265 through the low of $1.292.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 8.8cts lower at $2.605. While indicators continue to show the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways, last week's bearish outside range projects the spot-month contract to test major (long-term) support at the April 2015 low of $2.443.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 0.62ct lower at $0.4238. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. However, the lower weekly close combined with weekly stochastics near the overbought level of 80% indicate the secondary trend could see a bearish change in the coming weeks.

The weekly Commitments of Traders report showed positions held as of Tuesday, September 15.

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