Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $3.60 lower at $48.61. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with the spot-contract nearing the previous low of $45.19. If this secondary downtrend is Wave 2 of major (long-term) 5-wave uptrend, then support at the previous low needs to hold. Weekly stochastics are the oversold level of 20% indicating the market could begin to stabilize.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $3.25 lower at $43.87. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with the spot-month nearing its previous low of $42.03. If this downtrend is indeed Wave 2 of a major 5-wave uptrend, then support at the previous low needs to hold. Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders increasing their net-long futures position, slightly, possibly in response to weekly stochastics showing the market in an oversold situation.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 4.04cts lower at $1.5436. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains is down after the spot-month contract posted a new-low of $1.5212 last. However, weekly stochastics below 20% continue to show the market in a sharply oversold situation, possibly leading to a reversal in the near future.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 21.80cts lower at $1.6230. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with the spot-month contract testing support at $1.5930. This price marks the 61.8% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $1.2265 through $2.1858, continues to hold. Weekly stochastics remain bearish indicating the market should continue to see selling interest, most likely from the commercial side of the market. Last Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests increasing their net-long futures position by 1,321 contracts.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 4.50cts lower at $1.4600. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with the spot-month contract moving toward support at $1.4309 last week (a posted low of $1.4300). This price marks the 67% retracement level of the previous rally from $1.2920 through the high of $1.7090. Weekly stochastics are neutral-to-bearish. The major (long-term) trend remains up.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 8.20cts higher at $2.798. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. Support is at the $2.704, a price that marks the 67% retracement level of the rally from $2.443 through the high of $3.115. Weekly stochastics are neutral.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 2.12cts higher at $0.3250. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with support at the 4-week low of $0.2925 and resistance at the recent high of $0.3525. Weekly stochastics are neutral.

The weekly Commitments of Traders report showed positions held as of Tuesday, August 4.

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