South America Calling

Conab in Brazil reported this week safrinha (second season) corn planting is roughly 47% complete, compared to the five-year average of 53%. That is for most states, including the largest production states of Mato Grosso and Parana. By Conab's estimation, only Piaui and Tocantins are ahead of schedule. Both states are located in northern Brazil, where wet season rainfall typically lasts a little longer than farther south. It's the southern states that are most concerning regarding the safrinha corn crop.

Rainfall during the wet season so far has been underwhelming. It came early but was produced mostly by infrequent frontal passages in late September and October, instead of the widespread daily scattered showers that are usually the cause of rainfall during that time of year. The rain finally started to fill in across Brazil in late November and December -- enough to produce a record soybean crop. But it hasn't been enough rainfall to fully stock the soil column with moisture the country relies upon for the safrinha corn crop.

While soybean harvest continues to progress just slightly behind schedule, it's the coming corn crop where concerns are focused. Being just a couple of points behind the average planting pace does not seem concerning on its face. However, given the lower soil moisture in the column from the delay of the consistent wet season rain, the corn crop will need to take quick advantage of the available soil moisture before these rains shut down in late April and early May. Producers hope to get their corn through pollination before these rains shut down because once they do, it's almost complete dryness with daytime high temperatures in the 30s to lower 40s Celsius (90s to lower 100s Fahrenheit) for the fill period. That is stressful enough, but with a stocked soil column, a decent corn crop can be made. If there are issues with slower planting, the rest of the wet season produces poor rainfall, or the rains shut down early, the corn crop could undergo early stress that would be worrisome, using up the available soil moisture early and going without for a longer period of time.

The forecast from DTN continues to showcase a general below-normal rainfall signature for most of the country, though we do have enhanced rainfall across the easternmost states of Bahia and Minas Gerais. Parts of Goias, Tocantins, and Mato Grosso may also have some beneficial rainfall in March, but the April forecast does suggest below-normal rainfall or an early end to the showers. With some areas of these states and farther south running deficits of more than 100 millimeters (4 inches), according to satellite data available from NOAA, the forecast is not very favorable for this corn crop. What may be decent weather for the next month or so may turn ugly toward the pollination and fill periods, the more important stages for moisture.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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