South America Calling

Drier conditions in Brazil have been a building concern over the last several weeks. Not for the soybean crop, which is wrapping up harvest in many areas, but for the second-season (safrinha) corn crop that should be finished planting. Producers from the states of Parana to the south to Mato Grosso to the west, Minas Gerais in the east, and Piaui to the north, rely upon typical wet season rainfall to continue running consistently throughout the month of March to build soil moisture for safrinha corn. But so far, that rainfall has been disappointing.

DTN estimates the entirety of Brazil's growing areas are currently running 30-, 60-, and 90-day deficits, though the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest producer of safrinha corn, is closer to normal than other areas of the country, particularly in the eastern areas where totals are a meager 20% or less of normal. Some of these areas have seen less than an inch of rainfall over the last 30 days, which threatens to significantly hamper corn development early in the season.

While regular rainfall through the end of the wet season (early May) can help alleviate some of these deficits, it will be difficult to build back enough moisture to eliminate the drought problem in some of these states.

But even regular rainfall would not be enough. Much of the corn crop pollinates in mid- to late-April, which coincides with the decline of the wet-season rainfall. The crop relies upon built-up subsoil moisture to aid that process, fill kernels and produce a decent corn crop. Without good subsoil moisture, that prospect is suspect.

Soil moisture has been on the decline due to the recent dryness. Satellite estimates from NOAA and NASA point to a concerning situation for most of these growing areas outside of the state of Mato Grosso. Large sections of the south-central, east and north are in some form of drought. You can find those images here: https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/….

The forecast for Brazil looks more active over the next 7- to 10-days. A front has been stalled in central Brazil and been producing scattered showers from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais this week. That front is forecast to continue rainfall there through the end of March. Another front and system is forecast to move in from Argentina this weekend, keeping showers going there through the end of the month as well. Forecast rainfall amounts through March 30 are widely variable, but in general point toward 1 to 2 inches, with some lucky spots in the driest part of Minas Gerais picking up 2 to 3 inches. However, for most of the safrinha corn growing areas, this is still below normal for this time of year, and roughly half the average amount for this time of year in spots like southern Goias and southeastern Mato Grosso. Rainfall like this does not build much soil moisture, but rather maintains the status quo. The forecast for April does not look promising either, as a drier signal is maintained through this region as well. Therefore, even the rain forecast to be widespread is falling below normal.

Another note would be that models have been grossly overestimating rainfall along this front in central Brazil for the last week. It moved in early last week and has stuck around, but has been producing isolated showers instead of widespread scattered ones. Amounts that were forecast to be in the 2 to 3 inch range over the last 10 days have only amounted to spotty areas in that range, with most areas seeing around an inch or less. If models continue to overestimate the rainfall forecast, then the situation may become even more dire for producers in Brazil.

To find more international weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, visit https://www.dtnpf.com/….

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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