Brazil will export another 6% of soybeans in the upcoming 2014-15 season based on a roughly equivalent increase in production, the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (ABIOVE) said this week.
The crushing industry body forecasts bean exports will total 44.0 million metric tons from a crop of 86.0 mmt, continuing the recent trend for sharp annual increases in shipments over recent years.
Planting of what is expected to be a record crop has just begun.
Soybean processing won't grow at the same pace, expanding just 1.7% to 36.5 mmt next season. This reflects China's preference for beans over meal.
Assuming Brazil produces the promised bumper crop, ending soybean stocks will swell from 1.8 mmt to 4.5 mmt, the crushers forecast.
ABIOVE actually raised its 2013-14 soybean export figure by 1 mmt due to strong shipments in the first eight months of the marketing year.
The association's figures are based on data from firms representing 80% to 82% of all crushing in Brazil and, as such, are used as a reference here.
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