Market Matters Blog

Modern technology made last week's Pro Farmer Midwest Crop the most interactive -- and the most fun -- yet. There's nothing like sampling a field outside of Algona, Iowa, and getting a response from someone who lives there.

Or sitting down at Ferg's Tavern in Grand Junction, Iowa, and overhearing a farmer tell his friends that crop scouts are in the area.

Or getting an email from a Wisconsin farmer who weighs in on an area outside of the tour's scope -- a lot of the crop hasn't, and likely won't, tassel this year.

Or meeting someone face-to-face for the first time and learning the story behind how they got their Twitter handle (shout out to @grainmonster).

Twitter's 140 character format might seem like a silly communication tool in many situations, but it was made for events like crop tours. It's enough space to add a photo, a description and a yield estimate, yet it's small enough that it doesn't overstate the significance of one sample. When lots of people use Twitter in the same way, it creates a modern, moving picture of the crop as scouts move along their designated routes. I followed what I could from the backseat of the truck, and I can only imagine what it looked like from the behind the steering wheel of the sprayer cab or behind the trading screens.

Pro Farmer released its overall yield estimates on Friday, pegging corn at 154.1 bpa (+/- 1%) with production of 13.46 billion bushels. Pro Farmer's leaders estimated soybean production at 3.158 billion bushels with an average yield of 41.8 bpa.

"These estimates are based on assumptions for normal weather through September, which would be about perfect for the crops," a press release stated. "We took 1.8 million off of harvested acres for corn and 800,000 harvested acres off of soybeans to reflect the prevented plant acres in Iowa, Minnesota and North Dakota. It's dicey estimating crops in a year with so many challenges."

What I can tell you is that this crop has a long way to go, maturity-wise; but you knew that already. A little heat would help; timely rains would help more. There are a lot of pods and kernels to fill, and the weather has to play along. November soybeans gapped higher this morning, as a hot and dry forecast stokes anxiety about immature plants' ability to fill out their beans. It notched at 2013 closing high at $13.89 1/2.

New crop corn gapped higher to start the week, too, and even though it's far from setting a record in the contract, it closed above the psychologically important $5 level. With the downside in yield potential and overhanging questions about acreage, the markets will be watching for any change in the weather forecast and for any word on updated prevented planting acres.

(CZ)

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