Market Matters Blog

There's no doubt that weather will occupy the grain market driver seat this spring and summer. Farmers want to get this crop planted, so the corn has enough time to reach pollination before the summer heat hits. I think most grain analysts want this crop planted too: they'd rather be talking about planted acres versus planting prognostications.

But right now, a lot of what's occupying the market space is the struggle between higher stocks than expected and acreage estimates along the line of last year. What we also see, however, is growing concern about the hard red winter wheat crop and conversation about cotton regaining some of the acres USDA projected it too lose.

-- Corn and cotton. USDA's Prospective Plantings pegged cotton acreage at 10 million acres, a 19% decline from last year. Much of that acreage was expected to go into corn this year, but given the dramatic drop in corn prices following last Thursday's report, analysts are now expecting cotton to retain a few more acres.

According to DTN cotton analyst Duane Howell: "On the crop scene, more talk has circulated of corn acreage switching to cotton in the Delta because of cold, wet conditions. Also, a Delta source said, the big recent dive in corn prices and rally in cotton prices have furthered the switch."

For more about the cotton and corn relationship, I highly suggest reading Darin Newsom's Technically Speaking blog.

-- Warm, dry winds are expected to blast the already ailing HRW wheat crop this weekend, and the crop's condition is highly variable across the state, according to an update from Kansas Wheat.

A farmer near Sharon Springs estimates the crop in his area could have an average yield in low 40s as long as there's average to slightly above average moisture, but as you move west and south, the farmers note that wheat is just emerging in some spots. In places where there is a fair to good stand, moisture remains a top concern.

Jay Cook, a farmer near Garden City, told Kansas Wheat temperatures the next 60 days will be key to the crop's success.

"In my area of Lane and Finney counties, we barely got the wheat established due to dry soils, but we now have a stand. Our wheat needs cool weather to allow the roots to move into the soil profile where there is some moisture," he said. "We had one hot day in the past few weeks, and it looked as if the wheat crop headed backwards. But since then, we have had cool, damp weather that we need. I hope we are not in a trend of abnormally hot weather in April and May like we had last year."

For more producer comments: http://kswheat.com/…

-- The quality of old-crop corn exports from the U.S. was excellent, a recent U.S. Grains Council report found.

"This year's report indicates that export samples had a higher test weight, lower incidence of broken corn and foreign material (BCFM) and lower moisture as compared to the 2011/12 export samples. In chemical composition, the report observed higher protein levels and lower starch, with oil content also higher," a U.S. Grain Council press release stated. It also had a low number of samples containing aflatoxins at unacceptable levels.

The council conducts two studies. The Harvest Quality Report tracks quality as it enters the system and the April follow-up study looks at the quality as it is assembled for export.

"These two reports provide a systematic annual look at the quality of the U.S. corn crop, using reliable data and a transparent, consistent methodology each year," U.S. Grains Council Chairman Don Fast said in the release. "We have established processes for sample collection and testing, and as we follow those processes year after year we will assemble a reliable and comparable database of transparent, objective information about U.S. corn quality."

For the whole report: http://bit.ly/…

-- Don't forget that electronic grain trading hours change again on Sunday. The new hours are as follows: Sunday through Friday: electronic markets open at 7 p.m. CT. Morning halt Monday through Friday from 7:45 a.m. to 8:30 a.m. Electronic and pit trade resume at 8:30 a.m. and close at 1:15 p.m.

DTN's schedule for market commentary will also be changing to the following beginning Monday, April 8th:

Early Word Grain/Newsletter: 6:00 a.m.

Before the Bell Grain: 8:15 a.m.

Quick Takes: 8:30 a.m., 9:45 a.m., 11:45 a.m., and 1 p.m.

Midday Grain: 11:00 a.m.

Closing Grains: 2:00 p.m. (no later than)

If you currently don't have a DTN Grains Pro subscription and are interested in receiving DTN market commentary, please contact 1-800-511-0095.

With all of that said, I hope everyone enjoys this wonderful spring weekend. For us in Omaha, it's supposed to be one of the first really spring-ish weekends, and I'm looking forward to sowing a few seeds (lettuces, mostly) myself. If it's warm enough to start planting where you live, please be safe!