Fundamentally Speaking

The first USDA crop report for the 2026 growing season has come and gone and reflects what was a record hot July in the U.S., especially for a number of the top corn and soybean growing states with many areas also quite dry last month.

The 2026 corn yield was pegged at 180.7 bushels per acre (bpa), down from the average pre-trade guess of 182.3 bpa and from the prior USDA projection of 183, and well off the year ago record of 186.5 bpa.

We calculate this year's 25-year trend yield at 184.7 bpa so Wednesday's figure was 2.1% below that.

The 2026 soybean yield was pegged at 52.7 bpa, just off from the average pre-trade guess of 52.8 bpa and from the prior USDA projection and the year ago record of 53.0 bpa.

We calculated this year's 25-year trend yield at 53.7 bpa so Wednesday's figure was 2.0% below that.

The USDA corn and soybean state yield chart showing this year's yield and percent change from the prior year shows a rather dramatic contrast between corn and bean yields in states east of the Mississippi River, which in general were decent vs. those west of the river where a number of states saw extreme heat and dryness in July and far worse yields.

This graphic shows the percent deviation from the 25-year trend for the USDA's August 2026 yield calculations for the top corn and soybean states and the U.S.

There are 15 states that are top producers of each while CO, PA, and TX are top for just corn and AK, LA, and MS just for soybeans.

For corn, Texas had the largest negative deviation from trend at down 13.8% with Iowa the best at 3.9% above trend.

For soybeans, Louisiana was worst at 14.3% below trend yet interestingly its neighboring state Mississippi has the best yield relative to trend at up 6.1%.

Another quirk is NC having the second-best soybean yield relative to trend yet the third worst for corn.

Also, for the 15 states that are top corn and bean producers only IN, IA, and OH have above trend projected yields for both corn and soybeans.

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