Fundamentally Speaking

The USDA's January 12th WASDE report indicated the 2025/26 U.S. corn ending stocks figure at 2.227 billion bushels (bb) which would be the largest carryout figure for the January WASDE since 2018.

Due however to projected record usage for all three major demand components (exports, feed, and food-seed-industrial), the 2025/26 U.S. corn stocks-to-use ratio is currently projected at 13.6%. Still, this would be the second highest stocks-to-use ratio for the January WASDE report also since 2018.

This chart shows the U.S. corn stocks-to-use ratio first in the September WASDE report and then in the January WASDE report on the left-hand axis.

Reported on the right-hand axis is the percent change in March corn futures from September 15 to January 15.

The figures in the yellow boxes are the change in the U.S. corn stocks-to-use ratio from the September to the January USDA WASDE report.

Since the September WASDE report to the recently released January figures, the USDA has hiked 2025 corn production by 207 million bushels (mb) while boosting total usage in the 2025/26 marketing year by 290 mb.

This, along with an increase in beginning stocks, now has this year's ending stocks at 2.227 bb vs 2.110 bb seen in the September 2025 WASDE.

As a result, the stocks-to-use ratio has gone from 13.1% to 13.6%, a gain of 0.5%.

As a result, March futures over the past four months have receded from $4.41 on September 15 to $4.20 on January 15, a drop of 21 cents or down 4.8%.

Interestingly the USDA has increased its average farm price projection to $4.10 vs. $3.90 per bushel given in the September 2025 WASDE report, despite the rise in both the carryout and stocks-to-use ratios noting that forward pricing by producers were stronger than expected during a period of peak marketing and support the 2 percent increase.

Going forward, bullish price drivers include continued robust export demand and talk that U.S. producers may pare planted corn acreage for the upcoming season by perhaps 3-4 million acres.

On the other hand, what looks like another year of strong South American corn production and ideas that the current corn feed/ residual usage pegged at 6.2 bb is overly optimistic are two bearish factors.

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