Fundamentally Speaking

Though the large planted and harvested area changes from the June Acreage report seemed to grab most of the attention from the USDA's crop production and WASDE reports this week, record corn and soybean yield estimates matched and exceeded expectations in what so far has been a very favorable growing season for the row crops.

For the fourth time in the past five seasons, the USDA is forecasting a record U.S. corn yield and this year's 188.8 bushel per acre (bpa) figure is 3.6% above the 25-year trend, the largest positive deviation vs. trend since 2017.

The USDA's 53.6 bpa yield this season is 1.2% above the 25-year trend, the largest positive deviation vs. trend since 2021 and the first record U.S. soybean yield projection since 2016.

Record yields are usually accomplished with some of the larger producing states having above trend yields and few if any having subpar yields and this appears to have occurred in 2025.

This chart shows the percent that the USDA's August 2025 corn and soybean yield projections deviate from the 25-year trend for the top 18 growing states of each crop and the U.S.

The darker blue columns are record corn yields for that state while the darker orange columns are record soybean yields for that state.

For corn, 8 of the top 18 states are seen having an all-time high yield with four having their second-best yield ever and two having their third best yield.

For soybeans, 9 of the top 18 states are seen having an all-time high yield with three having their second-best yields ever.

Missouri has had a good growing season as evidenced by the fact it has the highest positive deviation vs. trend for both corn and soybeans at 12.6% and 6.3% respectively.

Minnesota and Iowa have also posted excellent yield results for both crops.

There are just two states, CO and TX, that even have below trend yields yet half the top soybean states have August yield projections below their respective 25-year trend figures.

Since soybean yield increases have been limited in recent seasons, AR, IL and MS are posting record yields even though they are still below trend.

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