Fundamentally Speaking

Last week the USDA kept its estimate for the 2025 corn yield at 181.0 bushels per acre(bpa) in the July WASDE report but based on the lofty crop ratings for this time of year, and assuming continued good weather through much of the Corn Belt, it is likely that the USDA will further increase its record yield projection in next month's first crop production report.

This week the USDA released its week 28 (around the middle of July) national corn condition report for the 2025 season and using our usual ratings system (where we weight the crop based on the percent in each category and assign that category a factor of 2 for very poor, 4 for poor, 6 for fair, 8 for good, and 10 for excellent and then sum the results), plotted on the left-hand axis are the 2025, 2024 and 2000-2025 average crop ratings for week 28.

Reported on the right-hand axis is the percent that the week 28 rating this year deviates from the 2000-2025 average.

The figure in the yellow boxes is rank of 2025-week 28 corn rating from 2000 to 2025 with 1 the best and 26 the worst.

Starting with the U.S., this year's 2025-week 28 rating of 770 is well above the year ago 744 and the sixth best since 2000 with the last higher rating being in 2016 at 778.

The U.S. corn rating this year is now 4.8% above the 2000-2025 average.

Certainly, one of the reasons for the current high national rating is Iowa, the top corn producing state so far having a spectacular year as their current 816 rating is the second best since 2000 as are the current week 28 ratings for Kansas and North Carolina whose 806 rating is far above last year's worst ever 384, which we did not even plot, and has the highest positive deviation from average at up 17.9%.

Of the 18 states only really two, MI and ND, have week 28 ratings down from their 25-year average with OH and KY just a smidge below their average.

Still a way to go before the crop is in the bin but the fact that most of the key corn producing states have very good conditions through mid-July does auger well for a solid final national yield.

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