Fundamentally Speaking

Rainfall, Temps in Top Corn, Soy States

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst

A quick look at some of the key weather statistics for last month suggest decent growing conditions which correlates well with current corn and soybean crop ratings that on the whole are well above average for this time of year.

This graphic looks at July 2015 rainfall as a percent of the 30 year July average precipitation, the difference between July 2015 temperatures and the 30 year July average temperature in degrees Fahrenheit and the end of July Palmer Drought Severity Index for the top corn and soybean producing states.

15 of the states are large producers of both crops but AR, LA and MS are the other soybean states and CO, PA and TX are the other top corn producers.

Looking at precipitation most areas were well watered with only LA at 54%, MI at 77%, MS at 93%, ND at 84%, PA at 97%, TX at 77% and WI at 86% having below normal July rains.

We tend to focus in on states having less than 75% of their normal moisture and only LA falls into this category which may explain why 14% of their soybean crop is either in poor or very poor condition.

Some states were well watered such as KY, TN and MO and the high crop ratings in both Kentucky and Missouri imply this moisture was quite beneficial but for Missouri the heavy July rains followed up on a very wet June with both soy and corn crops not faring that well In the Show Me state.

As for temperatures it appears that 11 of the 21 states had below average July readings with the Great Lakes states notably cool.

On the other hand some serious heat was seen in the southern states with AR, LA, and MS at least 1.5 degrees warmer than normal which is a significant amount and as consequence these Delta states appear to have lower soybean yield potential than a number of Midwest states.

Finally, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) readings are quite good with only MN (-0.70) and NC (-1.24) showing any dryness though a bigger problem appears to be soils that are still quite saturated from rains earlier in the year with 8 of the 21 states having PDSI readings above 3.00, the threshold for subsoils to be classified as very moist.



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