Fundamentally Speaking

End of July Soybean Crop Conditions

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst

In an earlier post, we noted that end of July corn crop ratings albeit not as high as last year for the bulk of the top 18 producing states were still very good with 12 of the 18 states having end of July ratings above their respective 1986-2014 average.

Using our usual ratings system (where we weight the crop based on the percent in each category and assign that category a factor of 2 for very poor, 4 for poor, 6 for fair, 8 for good, and 10 for excellent and then sum the results) the accompanying graphic shows the soybean crop ratings as of the end of July for the top 18 growing states and the U.S. for both this year and last.

We have also calculated the 1986-2014 average for the end of July ratings and also plotted the 2015 value as a percent of this average.

This year's U.S. rating of 724 is good and 1.6% above the 1986-2014 average though down from the year ago 760 rating.

Last year's rating was a precursor to the record 47.8 bushel per acre (bpa) record yield and was the fourth best since national ratings began in 1986 with the three other higher ratings also resulting in record U.S. soybean yields those seasons.

This year 8 of the top 18 states have end of July ratings better than year ago levels with Kentucky and Minnesota appearing to have much better yield potential than last year which is the exact same situation for corn.

States whose end of July crop ratings are well below 2014 include IL off 15.1%, IN down 16.7%, LA off 12.6%, MO down 22.4% and OH off 13.7%

All of these states except Louisiana that has drought conditions appear to be suffering the impact from excess moisture.

Given the fact that 12 of the 18 states have ratings above their respective 1986-2014 averages suggest an above average crop with MN, MS, TN and WI doing especially well.



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