Fundamentally Speaking

Joel Karlin
DTN Contributing Analyst

The USDA will release its 2014 Prospective Plantings report on March 31, a survey about what crops farmers intend to seed for the upcoming season.

Depending on weather, price changes during the spring, seed availability and other factors, the intention figures for both corn and soybeans can vary widely from what final acreage actually turns out to be.

This graphic shows the five year average percent change in planted acreage from the March intentions report to the final figures that are contained in the annual crop production report released the following January for the top 21 corn and soybean producing states.

For the U.S. as a whole, the average change is quite small at 0.5% for soybeans and literally no change for corn.

Over the past five years, U.S. final corn acreage has ranged from 1.6% higher than the March intentions report back in 2009 to last year’s 2.0% decline in actual seedings vs. the intentions number given the very cold and wet spring in 2013.

For soybeans, in 2009 final soybean planted area was 1.9% greater than what the March intentions had indicated vs. a 2.0% shortfall in 2011.

A look at the individual states shows much greater variability in planted acreage from the March intentions report to the final figures given in the annual crop production numbers.

The largest deviation is for North Dakota corn where final seedings have averaged 5.7% below the March prospective planting figures over the past five years.

This is the most northerly of any of the top 18 producing states and the cold and wet springs in recent years has resulted in a lot of intended corn ground never getting seeded.

Ohio is the other state where final plantings tend to fall below the March intentions.

On the other hand, dry conditions in Texas have generally resulted in higher final acreage than projected in the intentions report and the same for Pennsylvania.

For soybeans, North Carolina and Michigan stand out for having lower final acreage than given in the March intentions while a number of states including TN, MO, and KY have higher planted acreage.

(KA)