Fundamentally Speaking

By Joel Karlin
DTN Contributing Analyst

One of the variables we use to calculate U.S corn yields for the various crop production reports are crop conditions.

We use our usual ranking system where we weight the crop based on the percent in each category and assign that category a factor of 2 for VP, 4 for P, 6 for F, 8 for G, and 10 for EX and sum the results.

Crop ratings for the top 18 corn producing states and the U.S. as of August 1 for 2013 and the 1986-2012 average were calculated.

For the states of North Dakota and Tennessee, 2000-2012 data was used.

Also plotted is the 2013 figure as a percentile of the 1986-2012 data range (2000-12 for ND and TN).

As an example, the August 1, 2013 Illinois corn rating was 761 with the 1986-2012 August 1 rating coming in at 724.

Though this year’s August 1 Illinois crop rating is above the average only slight so as evidenced by the percentile ranking of 51.8%.

Conversely, the 8/1/13 Iowa crop rating was 684 and that is below the 1986-2012 average of 746.

Furthermore, the percentile of 14.8% means that 85% of the August 1 Iowa crop ratings have been above this year’s level.

While 11 of the top 18 states have 2013 values above the 1986-2012 average only 8 are in the upper 50% suggesting this year’s corn crop is average or just slightly above.

Note how conditions in the east are superlative as evidenced by the 8/1/13 and percentile rankings for TN, PA, OH, NC, IN, and KY. Conditions are less impressive in the west especially in IA, KS, and CO.

(KA)