Ethanol Blog

As time passes beyond the first 100 days of the Trump administration, dreams of a rural future with sustainable aviation fuel seem (SAF) to be waning -- this despite the rural vote carrying President Donald Trump to victory again.

Though the new administration has said very little if anything about where it stands on SAF, on the surface it makes sense for Trump to get fully behind such an industry if for nothing else than to help secure future economic prosperity for farmers.

Trump has on more than one occasion said, "we love our farmers," yet a potential goldmine for rural America sits stuck in neutral.

To this point the administration seems disinterested.

SAF will grow into a commercially viable venture for farmers and communities that are deeply invested in ethanol production, if it has the full support of the Trump administration.

Trump says a lot about creating new jobs and it's difficult to imagine any other regions of the country in more need of economic development and growth than rural areas.

No matter where you stand on the issue, it's clear right now that SAF doesn't have the momentum farmers and ethanol producers had hoped for here in May 2025.

Trump hasn't shied away from letting the world know what he thinks about the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) signed into law by the Biden administration. The IRA created the 45Z Clean Fuels Production tax credit which basically rewards producers based on their carbon reduction in fuel. The lower the carbon, the higher the credit.

Like it or not, 45Z is viewed by the administration as being part of the so-called Green New Deal.

That's at the root of why SAF has gone largely unrecognized by the new administration despite the industry's potential for rural Americans.

Trump has referred to the IRA as the "green new scam" and has dismissed clean energy incentives in the law as wasteful and ineffective. In February 2025, Trump called the IRA "the greatest scam in the history of the country."

45Z EXPANSION COULD STILL HAPPEN

Even with the Trump rhetoric, it doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility the administration could and probably should at some point change its view.

The rural vision of SAF's potential is shared by millions of farmers who voted for the president.

Perhaps at some point the Trump administration will get behind a long-term extension of 45Z that is set to expire on Dec. 31, 2027, even if it came from the previous administration.

As I wrote about a little over a year ago, "The promise of SAF in rural America is unmistakable: Meeting a goal of producing 35 billion gallons by 2050 would demand a new feedstock market of billions of bushels of corn from Midwest farmers." (See https://www.dtnpf.com/…)

Right now, farmers need markets more than anything.

Even if the current administration puts its full weight of support behind SAF, it seems the future faces significant headwinds.

The easiest path for ethanol plants to be a big part of SAF is to reduce carbon scores through carbon capture and storage, so as to make the fuel more attractive to airlines that are pushing toward net-zero carbon emissions.

This is where carbon pipelines can play a significant role and it is at this intersection where SAF sees and will continue to see the most resistance.

SUMMIT STRUGGLES

Enter Summit Carbon Solutions -- a company with plans to connect 57 Midwest ethanol plants to a carbon pipeline to open the door to SAF production across farm country.

Prior to the end of 2024, Summit seemed to be making progress in obtaining permits and in clearing other regulatory hurdles in Iowa, North Dakota and Minnesota.

Since then, state lawmakers in Iowa and South Dakota have started to chip away at the chance that the proposed 2,500-mile pipeline will ever be built. (See https://www.mprnews.org/…)

Serious opposition to the use of eminent domain could derail the Summit project and that is now taking center stage in Iowa and South Dakota.

South Dakota Republican Gov. Larry Rhoden signed a bill into law in March that essentially bans eminent domain to acquire private property to build carbon pipelines.

Two weeks ago, the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission denied Summit's permit application for a second time.

That action has led Summit to explore the possibility of reducing the number of ethanol plants connecting, and in changing the pipeline route.

In Iowa, state lawmakers are debating the future of eminent domain laws in response to the pipeline project.

Despite the negative publicity aimed at Summit, the vast majority of land acquired for the project does not come from eminent domain, according to company officials, (See https://apnews.com/…)

WILL 45Z BE EXTENDED?

In Washington, D.C., the question remains wide open: Will federal lawmakers pass a new budget bill that includes room for a 45Z extension?

To invest billions of dollars in SAF infrastructure, biofuels industry representatives say 45Z needs to be in effect for many years.

In April 2025, legislation was reintroduced in the U.S. Senate to extend the 45Z tax credit through Dec. 31, 2034. Last October, legislation was introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives to extend 45Z through 2037.

In January this year, Trump placed a 90-day hold on tax credits including 45Z. Although the Internal Revenue Service has put out guidance on 45Z, Trump's recently proposed budget appears to contain no 45Z extension.

It doesn't appear 45Z is even on Trump's radar.

Despite all the blowback, Summit CEO Lee Blank said in a March 14 statement that his company expects to complete the pipeline.

"In South Dakota, recent legislative changes have temporarily slowed our timeline, but they have not altered our vision or our determination," the statement reads.

"We remain confident that our project is moving forward in a way that benefits farmers, ethanol producers and rural communities. To the farmers, ethanol producers and industry leaders who stand with us: Your commitment to innovation and progress is what drives this industry forward. We share your vision for a thriving agricultural economy, and we will continue working alongside you to make that vision a reality."

So, how bad do you want SAF, rural America?

If a long-term 45Z extension and the SAF industry are going to happen, farmers will have to openly push for both.

Trump may ultimately say no to the refined fuels industry on this one, unless someone makes a good economic case.

Todd Neeley can be reached at todd.neeley@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @DTNeeley

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