Canada Markets

All Posts

  • November canola traded above and closed above $500 for the first time in the life of the contract on Wednesday, while paused on Thursday to close just slightly below $500 on late-session selling. The middle study shows the November/January spread at minus $3.40/mt, viewed as mildly bullish, while the lower study shows the potential for a bearish turn lower given the bearish crossover of short-term momentum indicators. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    The soybean market showed bearish technical signs in Thursday's trade while canola trade consolidated within Wednesday's trading range. Bearish signs also exist for canola.

  • New-crop December oats continue to consolidate on the weekly chart while holding above the 50% retracement of the move from the March low to the April high at $2.18 1/2/bu. The histograms in the lower studies represent the net-futures positions for noncommercial traders (green bars) and commercial traders (blue bars), with the latest data showing both sides of the market are holding bearish net-short positions. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Fewer oat acres will be planted in the U.S. and Canada in 2016 yet the market continues to flash bearish signals, with commercial and non-commercial traders holding bearish net-short positions as seen in last week's CFTC data.

  • This chart compares the current Saskatchewan topsoil moisture rating reported in the first crop report of the spring (or as close as possible to it) to early ratings reported in the past five years. The area of the province facing surplus topsoil moisture is the smallest seen in the 2011-2015 period at 6% (purple bar), while the area rated as adequate is higher than any year in the last five at 83% (green bars). (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Saskatchewan Agriculture's first crop report shows seeding at an above-average pace while most of the province is rated as having favorable topsoil moisture ratings. Forecasts call for favorable planting weather ahead.

  • by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Here's a look at some of the recent DTN 360 Poll findings where DTN readers share their opinions on various subjects. The questions include the trend in the loonie, the mix of corn and soybean acres in Canada in 2016 and your opinions surrounding the final report released by...

  • Last week's close of $489.40/mt on the nearby May canola contract (red line), was near the mid-point of the $21.30/mt range traded last week, while an encouraging move in relation to the five-year seasonal index trend, indicated by the blue line as measured against the primary vertical axis. DTN's Five-Year Seasonal Index would indicate only a slight upward bias through May and June. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Canola tends to produce a sideways to slightly higher move between now and June, although on its own, the seasonal trend is not viewed as reliable. While canola seems to face technical hurdles, unlike soybeans, the market is finding support from the commercial side.

  • This chart compares the trend in area planted to cereals on the Prairies (blue line is wheat, oats and barley) over the past 15 years (2001-2015) with the trend in canola acres (green line) and the trend in combined pea and lentil acres (red line). (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Thursday's early look at planting intentions by Statistics Canada shows a modest drop in overall wheat acres, a greater-than-expected cut in canola acres, along with a leap in dry pea and lentil acres which was within expectations.

  • The Canadian Wildland Fire Information System Fire Danger forecast map released by Natural Resources Canada shows the danger ranging from high to extreme over much of the western prairies, with the risk exploding over the past three days supported by record or near-record temperatures in many areas on Tuesday. Welcome relief may be on the way as seen in the seven-day forecast. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    The warmer-than-normal winter combined with a lack of moisture in the past three months has led to growing concerns in the western prairies, with the extreme fire hazard rating expanding rapidly over the past few days following record temperatures. U.S. precipitation forecasts...

  • May oat futures rallied along with other commodities, also driven by noncommercial traders. Today's move broke above resistance of the 33% retracement of the move from the December high to the March low, with the next level of resistance in the $1.99 to $2.00/bushel range.
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Noncommercial short-covering has resulted in a move higher in the oat market today, with the old-crop May future moving above resistance this session. Bearish fundamental data continues to hang over the market.

  • The black line represents the trend seen in licensed country elevator wheat stocks (excluding durum) for the current crop year, which compares to the 2014/15 crop year (red line) and the three-year average (green line). Stocks are falling faster than normal for this time. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    While U.S. ending wheat stocks could be the highest in decades by the end of the current crop year, Canada's wheat stocks will be extremely tight. Elevator stocks on the Prairies as of week 35 were well-below the same week in 2015 and the three-year average for that...

  • The corn market's five-year seasonal trend (blue line) tends to drift lower from a seasonal high in early March to an early August low, which could weigh further on the weak fundamentals facing the corn market, as measured against the primary vertical axis. The red line shows the current weekly trend in the nearby future, as measured against the secondary vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Scott Kemper)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Corn prices tend to drift lower from early March into early August, as seen on DTN's Five-Year Seasonal Index chart. This trend could add to the bearish fundamentals weighing on this market.

  • At close to 500,000 million metric tons, Canada's cumulative corn exports (black line) are more than double last year's pace (red line) while are tracking ahead of the three-year average (blue line).
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Canada's cumulative corn exports exceed both the pace of 2014/15, as well as the three-year average. The potential exists for exports to well-exceed current estimates given the historical pace of exports, while preventing ending stocks from testing record levels.