Canada Markets

China taking 218,000 metric ton (mt) of Canadian canola from Aug. 1 to Jan. 31 (in purple on the accompanying chart) compared to 3.08 million metric ton (mmt) over the same period last really year highlights the challenges facing canola exporters through that period. That will surely change now that the anti-dumping duty has been set at 5.9% versus the initial 75.8%, with future updates likely to see China resuming as the dominant player.

A significant portion of the shortfall in canola exports to China (down 2.862 mmt) remained, however, with total exports to Jan. 31 coming in a full 1.823 mmt below last year. As mentioned on the accompanying chart, Japan (taking 733,000 mt), Mexico (at 540,000 mt) and Pakistan (at 424,000 mt) were the top destinations from first to third. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) is expecting that to improve now that China has returned, forecasting an annual decline of only 1.131 mmt in its (just released) March update.

Soybean exports for the marketing year to Jan. 31 were running 108,000 mt ahead of last year's pace with AAFC expecting an annual decline of 171,000 mt when the smoke settles. China not only retained its spot as the top destination, but it also almost doubled its receipts compared to last year (at 1.503 mmt versus 874,000 mt last year). Interestingly enough, Iran was second place last year at 839,000 mt but fell to fourth place this year, taking only 431,000 mt by the end of January. Second place went to Algeria (527,000 mt) and third place went to the Netherlands (488,000 mt).

Leading off the cereals, non-durum wheat exports for marketing year 2025-26 to Jan. 31 were running 778,000 mt ahead of last year's pace while AAFC expects an annual decrease of 99,000 mt. The distribution is quite widespread as one could imagine, but the top spot went to China in this case as well. What is the most intriguing is exports to China hit 1.34 mmt by the end of January compared to only 360,000 mt last year when it barely made it in the top 10. The second largest recipient was Indonesia (1.142 mmt) with Japan being the third (at 1.049 mmt).

Durum wheat exports were running 225,000 mt behind last year's pace by the end of January compared to AAFC's expectations of an annual decrease of 421,000 mt. Not surprisingly, Italy was the top destination (taking 671,000 mt) with Morocco second (at 649,000 mt) and Algeria rounding out the top three (at 530,000 mt).

Barley exports were running 399,000 mt ahead of last year's pace by the end of January while AAFC expects the annual increase will reach 488,000 mt by the end of the marketing year. China was again the top destination (taking 913,000 mt, up from 860,000 mt last year) with Japan second (at 390,000 mt) and Saudi Arabia third (at 141,000 mt).

Oat exports were running 124,600 mt behind last year's pace by the end of January while AAFC expects an annual decrease of just 45,000 mt. The United States obviously took the bulk of that (importing 632,000 mt to Jan. 31, very close to last year's 672,000 mt) with Mexico a distant second (at 42,000 mt) and the UAE third (at 19,700 mt).

And, last but not least, corn exports were running 353,000 mt behind last year's pace by the end of January compared to AAFC's expectations of an annual decrease of 776,000 mt. Ireland was the top destination again (taking 292,000 mt versus 394,000 mt last year) with the United States second (at 125,000 mt) and Portugal rounding out the top three (at 50,000 mt).

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Mitch Miller can be reached at mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com

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