Canada Markets

Canada's Canola Yield and Deviation from Trend

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The blue bars represent Canada's average canola yield since 1980, as measured against the primary vertical axis. The brown line with markers represents the deviation from each year's yield to the previous 20-year trend, as measured against the secondary vertical axis.

Statistics Canada data shows the average Canadian canola yield estimated at 39.8 bushels per acre for 2018, down for the second straight year, as seen by the blue bars on the attached graphic. This compares to last year's 41-bpa estimate and the five-year average of 39.5 bpa.

While not shown, this is comprised of a year-over-year .7 bpa or 1.6% drop in Manitoba's estimated yield to 43.3 bpa, a .4 bpa or 1% increase in Saskatchewan's estimated yield to 39.3 bpa and an estimated 4.9 bpa, or 11.2% drop, in Alberta's estimated yield to 38.8 bpa.

In relation to the 20-year trend in yields seen across the provinces (1998 through 2017), Manitoba's 2018 average yield was 11.5% higher than the 20-year trend, according to Statistics Canada data, while Saskatchewan's average estimated yield is .2% below trend and Alberta's estimated yield is calculated at 13.2% below the 20-year trend.

The overall average Canadian yield at 39.8 bpa is the first time in four years that the average yield has deviated below the 20-year trend, calculated at 2.5% below trend as indicated by the brown lines with markers as measured against the secondary vertical axis. A similar deviation of 2.7% below trend is calculated for 2014, while the past four years have seen this deviation average 5.7% higher than trendline yields.

The average deviation relative to trend is showing signs of a favorable change over time. The 20-year average is calculated at 5.4% above trend, the 10-year average is 6.2% above trend and the five-year average is calculated at 7.9% above trend.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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