Canada Markets

Early 2018/19 Exports Compared to Historic Average Pace

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart compares projected 2018/19 exports for selected crops, based on the five-year average pace of exports realized in the first seven weeks of the crop year (blue bars) with current AAFC forecasts (brown bars). (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

The attached chart plots projected 2018/19 exports for selected crops (blue bars) against the current AAFC forecasts (brown bars), based on the five-year average pace of exports released as of week 7.

Drastic differences may signal an early or late start to crop year exports for the crops selected, while may also signal revisions to come in future AAFC reports.

As of week 7, or the week ending Sept. 16, wheat exports through licensed channels were reported at a cumulative 2.5331 million metric tons, up 19.6% from the same period in 2017/18 and 12% higher than the five-year average. On average over the past five years, 12.9% of total crop year exports were realized as of this date, which extrapolates to 19.6 mmt of crop year exports, which is well above the current AAFC forecast of 17.4 mmt, which was recently revised 100,000 metric tons lower in the September AAFC supply and demand tables. The USDA has estimated Canada's all-wheat potential at 24 mmt, which compares to AAFC's all-wheat total at 22.2 mmt.

This analysis shows durum exports as of week 7 pointing to a forecast that is well-behind the current forecast released by AAFC. As of week 7, durum exports through licensed facilitates total 321,300 mt, which is 44.1% behind the same period last crop year and 36.1% below the five-year average. Over the past five-years, an average of 10.5% of crop year totals are reported, a pace that points to an extrapolated volume of 3.068 mmt in 2018/19, well below the current AAFC forecast that was left unchanged this month at 4.8 mmt.

Of the larger crops, canola exports as of week 7 were reported at 715,100 mt, down 8.1% from the same period last crop year and 16.9% below the five-year average for this period. Over the past five years, an average of 8.5% of total crop year exports were realized in the first seven weeks of the crop year, which projects forward to crop year exports of 8.4 mmt, well below the current AAFC estimate of 11 mmt, recently revised 500,000 mt lower. The USDA's most recent Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade continues to show an export target for Canada of 11.6 mmt.

Looking across the findings across the smaller crops noted on this chart, crop year projections for oats, barley and flax are above the current AAFC forecasts for the current crop year, based on the start to the crop year that shows all three crops with cumulative crop year exports that are higher than their respective five-year average. The crop year projection for dry peas are well below the current AAFC target set for the year of 2.9 mmt, with current exports as of week 7 well behind the same period last crop year, as well as the five-year average.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @Cliff Jamieson

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