Canada Markets

Canada's June Merchandise Trade Statistics

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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In the Canadian International merchandise trade report, Statistics Canada reported record exports of $50.7 billion in the month of June, the first time monthly exports has been reported above $50 billion, while the country's imports declined from the previous month. The country's trade deficit with the rest of the world declined from $2.7 billion in May to $626 million in June, the smallest monthly trade deficit seen since January 2017.

Here is a look at miscellaneous trade statistics for grains and related products.

Statistics Canada reports 142,584 metric tons of lentils exported in June, up from the previous month, above the previous four-month average and the largest June volume shipped in four years. Turkey, Pakistan and Mexico were the three largest buyers over the month, while India was the fifth largest buyer at 8,671 metric tons, down slightly from the previous month. Year-to-date (August through June), exports total 1.416 million metric tons, down 41.3% from the 2016/17 crop year and 26.2% lower than the previous five-year average for this period. Given data covering the first 92% of the crop year, exports have reached 94.4% of AAFC's export demand estimate of 1.5 mmt for the 2017/18 crop year.

Canada exported 290,706 mt of dry peas in the month of June, the lowest volume shipped in three months, but still the largest June volume shipped in four years. China was the major buyer once again, with 81% of the month's total shipped to this country, the largest volume shipped to this destination since September. In the first 11 months of the 2017/18 crop year, 2.779 mmt has been exported, down 28.1% from the same period in 2016/17 and 4.3% below the five-year average. Cumulative exports have now surpassed the 2.7 mmt export target forecast by AAFC for the 2017/18 crop year.

Canada exported 1,847 mt of chickpeas in June, up slightly from the previous month but still extremely low given limited availability of supplies. AAFC's current estimates point to just 5,000 mt to be carried out of 2017/18, or just 3% of demand. Year-to-date exports total 111,745 mt, up 12.2% from the previous crop year and 35.5% higher than the previous five-year average. Cumulative exports have reached only 86% of the current 130,000 mt export forecast released bu AAFC, a target that will be difficult to achieve given tight supplies. The United States remains the largest buyer this month, taking 68.5% of the monthly total, although Statistics Canada data shows exports spread across 11 countries in total.

Canada exported 8,391 mt of mustard in June, the lowest monthly volume shipped in six months. Year-to-date exports total 105,079 mt, down 8.5% from the previous crop year and down 8.6% from the five-year average for the first 11 months of the crop year. Total exports have reached 84% of the current AAFC target of 125,000 mt, a forecast likely to prove high given the recent pace of movement.

Canary seed exports totaled 8,581 mt in June, the smallest monthly volume shipped this crop year. Year-to-date exports total 138,214 mt, down 2.5% from last crop year and down 3% from the five-year average. AAFC's July supply and demand tables point to an export demand forecast of 150,000 mt for 2017/18, a target that may prove high given the current pace of movement.

Canada's soybean exports increased to 289,417 mt in June, the largest monthly movement seen since December and seemingly the largest volume ever shipped in June, late in the crop year. A reported 158,600 mt was shipped to China, or 55% of the total volume, up sharply from only 4,530 mt shipped to China in May and the largest volume shipped to this destination since December, a potential sign of what is to come as China seeks alternative supplies to offset U.S. imports due to tariffs applied. Year-to-date, a reported 4.529 mmt has been exported to all destinations, up 9.3% from the previous crop year and 26.7% higher than the five year average. Cumulative exports are close to the 4.6 mmt export target set by AAFC, a target that was reduced by one million metric tons in the month of May.

Also of interest, despite reports of increased volumes of U.S. soybeans being shipped into the European Union, Canada showed a month-over-month increase in volumes into a number of countries such as Belgium, the Netherlands, Poland, Germany and France.

Statistics Canada reported 330,434 mt or corn exported in June, the largest monthly movement seen this crop year (September through June) and the largest June volume moved in five years. Close to 88% of this volume was moved to five European countries, with four of five of these countries showing a month over month increase in volume. The largest by far was Spain, shipped 131,102 mt and receiving close to 40% of the total volume for the second straight month. Year-to-date exports total 1.43 mmt, up 34% from the same period last crop year and 30.5% higher than the five-year average. To-date, cumulative exports have reached 86.7% of the total 1.65 mmt export target set by AAFC, with data covering 83% of the row-crop crop year with date from July and August to follow.

A reported 299,199 mt of canola oil was exported in the month of June, up from the previous month and 28.6% higher than the same month last crop year. Cumulative volumes are reported at 2.83 mmt, up .05% from the same period last crop year. Canola meal exports were reported at 347,139 mt in June, the lowest monthly volume shipped in four months. Cumulative exports are reported at 4.127 mmt, down 4.4% from the same period last crop year.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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(CZ)

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