Over the past two crop years (2016/17-2017/18), producer bids for yellow peas delivered to Saskatchewan plants have ranged from a high of $9.58/bushel reached in June 2017 to a low of $5.90/bushel reached in November 2017. Over the past two months, bids for No. 2 or better have moved from $7.30/bu to $6.13/bu today. According to the attached chart, this has price moving toward a level that has supported price over the past four years, which ranges from the $5.90/bu reached in November 2017 to the $6.19/bu level that was traded over the August/September periods in 2014.
It would appear that price may have bottomed given new-crop bids reported by Statpub.com ranging from $6.25 to $6.50/bu, higher than the current spot bid. This falls just ahead of what is normally the heaviest shipping month of the year in the month of September. Over the past five years, volumes of all peas exported were the highest of any month of the year in September, ranging from a low of 491,467 mt in 2013/14 to a high of 721,308 mt in 2014/15, while averaging 620,337 mt.
Looking back over the past two crop years, the largest monthly volume shipped to India was seen in the month of September in both crop years, while the largest monthly volume shipped to China in 2017/18 was seen in the month of September, although data for June and July are yet to be reported. In 2016/17, the largest monthly volume shipped to China was realized in the month of December.
Buyers seem reluctant to buy ahead of new crop availability, although the June Exports of Canadian Grain and Wheat Flour report shows 110,400 metric tons of bulk peas exported through licensed export channels in the month, almost all to China and up 31% from the same month in 2016/17. Friday's Merchandise trade report release by Statistics Canada will show total exports for the month.
To date, the CGC shows licensed exports to China up 558,700 mt or 77.5% higher in the August through June period.
One positive sign noted is stocks of peas held in licensed commercial positions. As of week 51, this total was reported at 239,900 mt, or 34% of the current AAFC estimated carryout of 700,000 mt. Over the past five years, the week 52 stocks in commercial positions averaged just 112,580 mt.
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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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