Canada Markets

Historical Shifts in Seeded Acre Estimates from March to June

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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Over the past five years (2013 to 2017), the average change in estimated seeded acres in Canada from the March Principal field crop areas report released in April to the June estimates resulted in more canola, soybean and lentil acres while the balance of the selected crops saw seeded acres revised lower on average. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

In the Canada Market Blog for June 8, we looked at DTN 360 poll results as they relate to recent Statistics Canada reports. In summary, 75% of respondents in one poll selected that report accuracy 1) may be a problem or 2) will be a problem given the timing of the survey and the type of spring encountered between polling and actual seeding.

As well, a large share of responses in a poll following the April 27 acreage estimates (61%) pointed to concerns with Statistics Canada's year-over-year decline in estimated canola acres seeded while another 23% showed a struggle with the magnitude of the jump in estimated acres seeded to wheat and durum.

The attached chart shows the tendencies in seeded acre estimates between the March Principal field crop areas report released in April and the June report released after spring seeding, based on the five-year average from 2013 to 2017.

The blue bars represent a five-year average percent change that points to an average increase in seeded acres over this period, with canola acres in June estimated 2.6% higher than March on average, while soybean acres averaged 4.3% higher and lentil areas averaged 12.4% higher. Over the five-year period in question, June estimates were reported higher than the estimates released in April in all five years for each of these three commodities. 2018 could be the year that breaks the trend in lentil area increasing from April to June given trade concerns that Statistics Canada understated the drop in lentil acres that will be faced in 2018.

Of the selected crops, durum acres failed to register on the chart, averaging .1% higher in June over the five years, although Statistics Canada's June durum acre estimates were higher in just two of the five years.

Of the selected crops with red bars on the chart, June acres averaged lower than the April report over the five years in question. This ranges from a mere .5% drop in pea acres on average over the five years while the early report tends to overstate flax acres, which have averaged 7.4% lower in the June report over the five years.

Of these crops that tend to be revised lower in June, the most convincing results are spring wheat (minus 3.4%), corn (minus 4.2%) and oats (minus 4.2%), where June areas came in lower in each of the five years in question, with the percent change in brackets. Flax acres were reported lower in June in four of the five years, while dry pea acres were reported lower in three of the five years.

The release of Statistics Canada's next Principal field crop areas report will be released on June 29.

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DTN 360 Poll

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently hinted to a United States news audience that Canada is considering allowing U.S. exporters increased access to Canada's dairy market. What do you think the government should do regarding Canada's supply management system, especially as it continues to come under attack in international trade negotiations?

You can weigh in with your thoughts on this poll found at the lower right side of your DTN Canada Home Page.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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