Canada Markets

Cumulative Producer Grain Deliveries as of Week 12

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The bars represent the cumulative volume of selected grains delivered into licensed facilities, as of week 12 in 2017/18 (grey bars), and the five-year average (yellow bars), as measured against the primary vertical axis. The blue line with markers measures the volume of each grain delivered as a percent of total deliveries of all grains in the first 12 weeks for 2017/18, while the brown line represents the five-year average, as measured against the percent scale on the secondary vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

A recent DTN 360 poll asked readers which crops they are most likely to hold for improved marketing opportunities this crop year. The results of this unscientific poll were perhaps surprising, with 54% of respondents choosing wheat as the crop to hold, while the next largest option selected was canola at 19%. Roughly one-half of Manitoba and Saskatchewan responses selected wheat, while two-thirds of Alberta responses also selected wheat.

The attached chart points to the volumes of selected crops that has been delivered into licensed facilities in the first 12 weeks since Aug. 1. While the grey bars represent 2017/18 deliveries, the yellow bars represent the five-year average (four years in the case of soybeans) as measured against the volume scale on the primary vertical axis. As seen on this chart, producer deliveries of wheat, durum and peas have seen 2017/18 crop year deliveries through week 12, or the week ending Oct. 22, fall below their respective five-year averages. While wheat deliveries are 3.8% behind the average volume delivered, durum deliveries are 25.5% behind and dry pea deliveries trail by just 2.8%.

It is also interesting to see that the volume delivered of these three grains represents a decreasing share of the total volume of grain delivered, as seen by the lines with markers that is measured against the percent scale on the secondary vertical axis on the right. As an example, on average over the past five years (2012 through 2016), cumulative deliveries of wheat (excluding durum) accounted for 35.9% of all grains delivered as of week 12 (brown line), which has fallen to 30.8% in the current crop year. Durum deliveries have fallen from 8.3% of all grains delivered on average to 5.5% this crop year, while peas have fallen by a lesser extent.

As seen on the attached chart, producers have delivered 921,000 metric tons, or 23% more canola than seen in the five-year average, while the volume of canola as a percentage of all grains delivered has increased from 32% on average over the past five years (brown line) to 35.5% in 2017/18 (blue line). A similar trend is seen for soybeans. As of week 12, producers in the west delivered 833,700 mt of soybeans, which is up 192% from the previous four-year average, given that the CGC did not track soybean data in 2012/13. The volume of soybeans delivered as a percentage of total grain deliveries represents 6% in 2017/18, up from an average of 2.1% over the past four years as producers increasingly rely on oilseed deliveries in the fall.

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DTN 360 Poll

What do you think Statistics Canada will report with respect to the overall size of the Canadian crop in its final estimates released in December? You can weigh in with your thoughts on this week's poll that is found at the lower right of the Canadian Home Page.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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