Canada Markets

Week 3 Terminal Stocks the Lowest in Four Years

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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As of week 3, or the week ended August 20, terminal stocks of major grains were at their lowest level seen in four years, totaling 2.227 million metric tons, down 51% from the recent high reached in 2015/16. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Perhaps a good news/bad news story, terminal stocks of Canadian grain in terminal position are at their lowest point in four years, given the sum of the volumes of major grains in store Pacific terminals, Churchill, Thunder Bay along with eastern terminals. The good news is the space available as harvest progresses, while the bad news may be the added pressure to move grain into positon.

Total grain stocks of all grains across all export terminals are reported at 2.3916 million metric tons, which consists of 2.2269 mmt of the major grains shown on the attached chart. This is down 50.7% from the recent high reached as of the same week in 2015/16, while is the lowest since 2013/14.

Statistics for the volume in transit would suggest little gains will be achieved in week 4 data, with in-transit wheat slightly higher than the same week in 2016/17 as well as slightly ahead of the five-year average for the week, while movement of durum and canola are well behind the five-year average in-transit volumes.

The Ag Transport Coalition's Rail Network Status Report as of August 28 points to an emphasis on eastern movement given the earlier Manitoba harvest. While the total number of cars on line destined for Vancouver are shown to increase by 14% in the previous 24 hours, the number of cars remains 5% below the previous 14-day average. At the same time, cars slated to Thunder Bay increased 20% in the past 24 hours, while are at the highest level shipped in the past 14 days and 20% above the previous 14-day moving average.

Cumulative exports have played a role in the tighter terminal stocks situation, with week 3 data pointing to the combined volumes of wheat, durum and canola exports being 170,000 metric tons ahead of year-ago volumes.

DTN 360 Poll

This week's question asks if you intend to sell cash grain off the combine this fall. You can weigh in with your thoughts on this week's poll, which is found at the lower right of your Home Page on the Canadian DTN site. We thank you for sharing your thoughts!

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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