Canada Markets

Weather Continues to Challenge Alberta Crops

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The blue bars represents the Good to Excellent ratings for Alberta crops as of July 25, while the brown bars represent the rating for the same week in 2016 and the grey bars the four-year average for the week, as measured against the primary vertical axis. The black line with markers represents the percent drop seen from this spring's highest rating to the current rating, as measured against the secondary vertical axis. While the durum rating has fallen by 51% from the June 20 rating, other crops show an 18 to 34% drop. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Alberta Agriculture reports crops continuing to hold on overall, with the Good to Excellent rating for all crops falling 4 points to 60%. This compares to the 82.5% reported this time last year and the five-year average reported by Alberta Ag of 74%.

While crop conditions fell across the province, the northern regions are seeing modest declines due to excessive moisture over the growing season. The southern region is seeing conditions sharply decline due to hot and dry conditions. For example, the Northeast Region has seen the all-crop Good-to-Excellent rating fall by approximately 8% since the highest ratings were released for the week ending June 20, which ranges from a drop of 6% for peas to 11% for oats. Spring wheat fell 7% and canola fell by 8%, while all crops remain roughly in the 74% to 84% Good to Excellent range.

Compare this to the Southern Region, where the ratings for all crops has fallen from 87.7% Good to Excellent in June to 40.2% Good to Excellent this week. The percentage change in ratings across all crops ranges from a drop of 50% for peas to a high of 61% drop for barley and canola.

A quick look at the province's estimated dryland yields shows estimated yields ranging from roughly 2 bushels per acre or 6% below the five-year average for canola at 38.5 bpa, to 8 bpa or 17% below average for durum at 39 bpa. Yield estimates will remain in a state of flux with a continued pattern of hot, dry weather expected for the province. Temperatures as high as 38 Celsius are forecast for southern Alberta, while daytime highs of 30 C are expected over many areas of the province next week. This will further stress the crop.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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