Canada Markets

AAFC Updates 2017/18 Supply and Demand Tables

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The grey bars represent most recent AAFC estimates for 2017/18 ending stocks for selected grains, as compared to the past two years and the 2011/12-2015/16 five-year average. While this may show the general trend in ending stocks, 2017 production estimates are based on average or trendline yields and may prove overstated. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's July supply and demand data, found in the Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops report, shows prospects for total crop production, total supplies and ending stocks to be slightly lower than 2016/17 levels. Higher exports of wheat, durum, corn and soybeans are expected to lead to a year-over-year increase in total exports for all grains. This month's report shows updated tables based on Statistics Canada's latest acreage reports.

While the attached graphic points to the overall trend expected in 2017/18 ending stocks relative to previous years as well as average levels, the yield potential for 2017 crops may remain overstated. It has remained unchanged from June while remaining at trendline or average levels despite the challenging weather factors affecting the western Prairies, with more to come.

The production potential for this crop will not be updated until the Aug. 31 Production of principal field crops report to be released by Statistics Canada. This will include producer survey data taken from late July/early August, which will take into account the impacts of excessive rains in the north, the hot, dry weather already experienced in the south and the continuation of this pattern expected over much of the next two weeks.

Current data points to ending stocks for major crops such as wheat, barley, canola and lentils (grey bars) falling from the current estimates for 2016/17, as well as below their respective five-year average (2011/12 through 2015/16). Perhaps one on the most significant moves in ending stocks is seen with the current canola forecast, which is estimated to see stocks fall from 2.016 million metric tons in 2015/16 to 600,000 metric tons in 2016/17 and to a forecast 300,000 mt in 2017/18.

Latest media reports point to a wide variability in crop conditions across the Prairies, with "OK" crops seen in Manitoba, average crops in central and northern areas and a below average potential in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. The next few weeks will be key.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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