There was a varying amount of moisture from scattered showers and thundershowers across the Prairies yesterday and today.. For areas lucky enough to see moisture, this may help the crop face the next extended period of hot, dry weather expected across the western prairies.
While more and more pictures are appearing on social media pointing to crop stress related to the hot and dry conditions in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, the recent Crop Condition Assessment Program thematic map (CCAP) for the July 2-8 period shows vegetation rated Similar to Higher compared to normal across the Prairies. This data is based on satellite data from a 1-kilometer resolution, although it may be hard to compete with the boots-on-the-ground method of crop assessment.
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Another observation from the attached graphic is the varying thematic results seen north and south of the 49th parallel, with the northern states showing vegetation rated Lower to Much Lower compared to normal as of the same week. On Monday, the USDA lowered the crop condition for the U.S. spring wheat crop for the sixth consecutive week, as of July 9. Based on this data, DTN's Crop Condition Index for spring wheat is calculated at 44 across the six major producing states, the lowest since 1988 and compares to 164 calculated for this week last year and the five-year average of 173.6. Across the three largest producing states, the Montana index is calculated at minus 43 (169), South Dakota is calculated at minus 71 (130) and North Dakota's index is calculated at 54 (166), with year-ago ratings in brackets.
Markets may pause on Wednesday, given updated supply and demand data from the USDA, but attention will shift quickly back to weather with a hot and dry pattern or dome expected to form next week which could take a further toll both sides of the border.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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