Canada Markets

Week 40 Cumulative Exports Compared to Historical Volumes

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The blue bars represent week 40 cumulative licensed exports for selected crops as compared to the same week in 2015/16; the brown bars represent cumulative week 40 exports as compared to the five-year average (three years in the case of soybeans); and the grey bars represent the average percent of total crop-year exports achieved as of week 40 over the past five years (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Cumulative exports of wheat, durum, barley and flax are behind the same period in 2015/16, as indicated by the blue bars on the attached chart, while also behind their respective five-year average, as indicated by the brown bars. Exports of oats, canola, soybeans and peas are higher than both the previous crop year and the five-year average. Week 40 represents the first 77% of the crop year.

Cumulative exports of wheat (excluding durum) are reported at 10.562 million metric tons, down 17.3% from the previous crop year and 10.5% below the five-year average. Over the past five years, an average of 70.9% of total crop-year exports were achieved by week 40. This pace of movement would point to crop year exports of approximately 14.9 mmt, well below the current AAFC estimate of 16 mmt. In 2015/16, 74.4% of crop year exports were achieved as of week 40, while this pace of movement would point to even lower crop-year exports of 14.2 mmt.

Durum exports as of week 40 total 3.355 mmt, down 9.2% from 2015/16 and 4.9% below the five-year average. Over the past five years, an average of 78.5% of crop year exports were achieved as of week 40, a pace which would indicate total crop-year exports of 4.3 mmt, slightly lower than the current 4.5 mmt export target released by AAFC.

As of week 40, barley exports at 900,100 metric tons are .2% below the same period last year and 13.8% below the five-year average. Over the past five years, an average of 47.2% of licensed exports are reported as of week 40, which points to crop-year exports reaching roughly 1.9 mmt, just slightly higher than the current AAFC estimate of 1.825 mmt.

Also lagging past performance is flax, with week 40 cumulative volumes reported at 240,900 mt, 15.7% below the same period last year and 13.8% behind the five-year average. Over the past five years, licensed exports as of week 40 reached 49.5% of the crop year total, while this logic would point to 2016/17 crop year exports of 486,700 mt, lagging the current AAFC estimate of 600,000 mt.

Cumulative licensed exports of oats are reported at 999,200 mt, 21% higher than the previous crop year while 15.1% higher than the five-year average. Over the past five years, cumulative week 40 exports account for 38.9% of the crop-year total, while movement at average pace would point to total crop-year exports of 2.568 mmt that slightly exceeds the current AAFC estimate of 2.475 mmt.

As of week 40, licensed exports of canola are reported at a cumulative volume of 8.628 mmt, 10.1% higher than the same 40 weeks in 2015/16 and 26.4% higher than the five-year average. Between 2011/12 and 2015/16, exports over the first 40 weeks averaged 76.8% of crop-year exports, which could point to crop-year exports of 11.2 mmt, although supplies could be the limiting factor.

Licensed soybean exports as of week 40 totaled 3.6095 mmt, 21.4% higher than the same period last crop year and 44.8% higher than the three-year average. Over the past three years, week 40 data has accounted for 65.2% of crop-year exports, although available supplies will govern crop-year export potential.

Canada's licensed dry pea exports through the first 77% of the crop-year total 3.078 mmt, which is 43.4% higher than the same period last year and 86.9% higher than the five-year average. Over the past five years, an average of 62.4% of total crop-year exports were shipped as of week 40, although in 2015/16, 81.1% of crop-year exports were shipped as of week 40. This pace could see crop-year exports rise to 3.8 mmt from the current AAFC estimated of 3.2 mmt, although supplies could be the limiting factor.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(CZ)

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