Canada Markets

Week 38 Exports as Compared to Average

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The blue bars represent the cumulative licensed exports for major grains as of week 38 or the week ending April 23, as compared to the same week in 2015/16 (brown bars) and the five-year average (grey bars), measured against the primary vertical axis. The black line with markers represents the five-year average percent of total exports indicated by cumulative week 38 licensed exports, which may provide hints to the potential for the current crop year. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Week 38 Grain Statistics Weekly, released by the Canadian Grain Commission and covering activity for the week ended April 23, shows that total cumulative exports of major grains exported from licensed facilities surpassed the cumulative total for the same week in 2015/16 for the first time this crop year. A cumulative total of 30.9553 million metric tons of major grains are reported to be exported through licensed exports as of week 38, 102,900 metric tons or .3% higher than the same week last year. As seen on the attached chart, this is largely due to the year-over-year increases seen in oats, canola, soybeans and peas, as indicated by the blue line on the chart exceeding the 2015/16 and five-year average pace of exports.

As seen on the attached chart, the 2016/17 movement of oats, canola, soybeans and peas are the driving force behind the success of 2016/17 export volumes (blue bars). Cumulative exports of canola are pegged at 7.996 mmt, close to 670,000 metric tons or 9% higher than year-ago volumes. As indicated by the black line with markers, an average of 72.8% of total crop-year exports have been shipped as of week 38, the highest percentage of the selected crop as measured against the secondary vertical axis, which could be extrapolated to crop-year exports nearing 11 mmt by the end of July, although will be dependent on available supplies. This compares to the current AAFC target of 10 mmt. Friday's March 31 stocks report from Statistics Canada could shed light on prospects of shipping such a volume.

At 3.573 mmt, exports of soybeans through licensed facilities are 601,100 mt or 20.2% higher than year-ago volumes and well above the five-year average. Over the past five years, exports as of week 38 have averaged 65.2% of the crop year total, although available supplies will be the limiting factor in this year's total exports, currently pegged at 4.4 mmt by AAFC given current production estimates.

Dry pea exports are reported at 2.9482 mmt as of week 38, 889,600 mt or 43.2% higher than the same date in 2015/16 and well above the five-year average. Over the past five years, exports as of this date have averaged only 1.567 mmt as of week 38, while also averaging 59.3% of total crop-year exports, suggesting a potential for significantly higher exports than the current 3.4 mmt export target set by AAFC in April, although once again, supplies will be the limiting factor.

Oat exports through licensed facilities as of week 38 totals 972,700 mt, 22.5% or 178,500 mt higher than reported for the same week in 2015/16 and well above the five-year average. Over the past five years, licensed exports reported by the CGC as of week 38 have averaged just 37.2% of total crop-year exports, which suggests that the current 2.475 mmt export estimate released by AAFC could be under-stated.

Acting as a drag on overall crop-year exports are wheat, durum, barley and flax. As of week 38, wheat exports through licensed facilities total 9.929 mmt, significantly below both the 2015/16 pace of nearly 12 mmt and the five-year average of 11.012 mmt. On average over the past five years, 66.1% of total exports are represented in the week 38 data, suggesting that an average pace of movement over the balance of the crop year could lead to total crop-year exports closer to the 15 mmt level as compared to the current AAFC export target of 16 mmt.

Licensed durum exports as of week 38 total 3.1826 mmt, down 365,400 mt or 10.3% from last crop year and below the five-year average. Over the past five years, licensed exports made up 72.4% of the crop year's total exports, which could be extrapolated to indicate a potential annual target of approximately 4.4 mmt, only slightly lower than the current 4.5 mmt target indicated by AAFC.

Licensed cumulative exports of barley are reported at 896,900 mt, ahead of the 2015/16 crop year but behind the five-year average. Over the past five years, an average of 44.9% of total crop year exports were shipped by this point, while extrapolation would suggest crop year exports of close to 2 mmt, higher than the current AAFC target of 1.825 mmt. Licensed cumulative exports of flax are reported at 239,200 mt, behind last year and the five-year average. On average, 44.8% of annual exports are shipped by week 38, while this average pace would point to crop year exports of close to 534,000 mt, below the current AAFC target of 600,000 mt.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(CZ)

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