While history may have no link to the future, here is a look at the price tendencies seen in selected grains in February, given the percent change in price as indicated on the continuous active chart.
DTN's five-year seasonal chart points to hard red spring wheat futures trending lower through late-February. This was the only commodity of those selected to show weakness over the month, with the five-year average percent change on the continuous active chart showing a .2% loss. Price fell in three of the five years (2011/12 through 2015/16), with the largest monthly drop of 7.3% in 2012/13 as compared to the largest monthly gain of 8.7% in 2013/14.
DTN's five-year seasonal chart shows canola prices entering a seasonal trend in January that leads to gains into the summer months on average. As seen on the attached chart, the average of the moves seen on the continuous active futures chart over the past five years shows an average gain of 1.5% in February. The change over the month of February resulted in a loss in two of the five years with the largest a 5.4% loss in 2015/16. The largest gains was seen in 2011/12 at 10.7%.
DTN's five-year seasonal chart points to corn prices increasing through mid-March on average, while the attached chart shows prices gaining an average 1.4% in February over the past five years. Prices have advanced in three of the past five years, with the largest gain realized being 6.8% in 2013/14 while the largest loss was seen in 2012/13 of 5%.
DTN's five-year seasonal chart shows soybean prices increasing through late June on average over the past five years. Over the past five years, February has proved favorable for soybean prices, with price on the continuous active chart advancing an average of 4.8% in February over the period. Prices advanced in three of the five years in question, with the largest monthly move higher seen in 2013/14 at 10.2%. The largest monthly decline was seen in 2015/16 at 2.4% down from the previous month.
Acting as a possible drag on potential February gains is an average .8% gain in the Canadian dollar in February on average over the past five years. There was a monthly loss in the Canada/U.S. exchange rate in only one of the five years in question, with the largest gain seen in 2015/16 at 3.7% and the largest monthly loss seen in 2012/13 at 3.1%.
DTN 360 Poll
This week's poll asks the question:
With the Canadian government bracing for potential barriers to trade with the United States, what area of the agriculture industry do you think is the most vulnerable?
You can weigh in with your thoughts on this week's poll, found at the lower-right side of your DTN Home Page.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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