Canada Markets

Prairie Grain on the Move

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart shows the cumulative volume of producer deliveries, and elevator shipments in the primary elevator system as of week 14, as well as the stocks held in the system as of this week. Cumulative deliveries and shipments are higher than the same week in 2015, as well as the five-year average. Inventories are also higher, but not a burden. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Grain continues to flow into the licensed primary elevator system, with week 14 deliveries totaling 944,700 metric tons, slightly higher than the four-week average, as well as 38% higher than the same week in 2015/16. Producers are seen aggressively filling fall contracts, making incremental sales, especially given the run-up in canola to the $11 mark, as well as seeking homes at facilities with drying capabilities, given the tough and damp grain harvested this fall.

As seen on the chart, producer deliveries of all principal field crops into licensed elevators totals 13.825 million metric tons, 7.2% higher than the same period in 2015/16 and 17% higher than the five-year average. Data showing deliveries into all licensed facilities show producers delivering approximately 400,000 metric tons more canola than the same period last year, 529,000 mt more western soybeans and 641,000 mt more dry peas.

This movement of grain from the farm is supported by aggressive movement from the prairie elevators. Total shipments are reported at 12.375 mmt, up 1.8% from the previous year and 11.7% higher than the five-year average. This is despite unfulfilled demand for hopper cars at the country level of 4,911 cars (2,332 for CN and 2,579 for CP) as of the end of week 13.

Country space remains in reasonable shape. Primary elevator stocks are reported at 3.3723 mmt, as of week 14, 12% higher than the same week in 2015/16 and 13.8% higher than the five-year average. This represents 48% of total prairie capacity and 73.8% of the estimated prairie working capacity. This volume is only slightly higher than the previous week's inventory as well as slightly higher than the four-week average.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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